If you are serious about generating a positive return on investment betting on NBA games then there is no substitute for doing your homework and thoroughly handicapping every matchup that you actually bet on. That being said, there are also some general tips and angles that should also be taken into consideration when it comes making your actual picks.
First on the list is access to an accurate injury report. With an 82-game regular-season schedule followed by a brutal run to an NBA title in the playoffs, injuries are a huge part of the game. Not all injury reports are up to date and millions of dollars have been won and lost on a late-game scratch that ended-up have a major impact on the outcome of a game.
Sportsbooks will normally keep a game “off the board” if there is any uncertainty concerning the playing status of a star player, but the tricky part of the process is when a top player is scheduled to go, but is ultimately held out of the starting lineup come game time. Anytime injuries create a cause for concern one way or the other, the best course of action is to stay away from betting that game.
Another good tip to keep in mind is watching for sudden or deep betting line movements. Oddsmakers normally release point spreads, total lines and money lines for a game about 24 hours in advance. Subtle line movements of a half point here and there are part of the normal process of sportsbooks adjusting their particular odds based on the early money coming in. Whenever you come across of line movement greater than a point it could be a signal that there is some heavy sharp action on that game, especially when the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting public’s consensus pick.
Proper money management is a vital part of any overall betting strategy and you should always put a unit value on your picks based on the overall confidence you have in your handicapping efforts. There is no such thing as a lock when it comes to betting on sports let alone the often unpredictable nature of NBA games. You should feel good about any pick you make before you actually bet money on it, but save the high unit plays for the rare times when you feel great about a pick.
One betting angle that can sometimes generate a better return on NBA games is playing mild underdogs on the money line as opposed to taking the two or three points on the point spread. If that underdog wins the game straight-up it is still going to cost you $110 on your $100 bet on the point spread as opposed to the $115 to $120 you could have collected on that $100 money line bet. Keep in mind that the favored team during a typical NBA regular season wins less than 60 percent of the time so that means on any given night there is a good chance that there will be a couple of outright upsets.
One final tip for betting on NBA games is to take past betting trends with a grain of salt. They do have some value in the grand scheme of things, but betting on trends at face value is a poor substitute for properly handicapping a matchup. Just because one team has failed to cover in 10-straight road games against another team does not mean they will fail to cover in the next meeting on the road. Use betting trends as clues as to what might happen in a matchup, not as a predictor of what will happen.
