The Hilltoppers made their way to the Conference USA title game this season after going 8-0 straight-up in the East Division and they capped things off with a 45-28 victory against Southern Miss in the championship game as 7.5-point favorites. The total in that game stayed UNDER the 76.5-point closing line. On the year, Western Kentucky is 11-2 straight-up with an 8-4-1 record ATS. It has now covered in four of its last five games.
Western Kentucky comes into this game with one of the most potent passing attacks in the nation. Behind quarterback Brandon Doughty, the offense is averaging 365.4 passing yards a game, which is the sixth-highest total in the country. Doughty has thrown for 4,594 yards and 45 touchdowns, while completing an impressive 71.8 percent of his 496 attempts. The Hilltoppers are the fourth-highest scoring team in the Nation with an average of 44 points a game.
South Florida went 6-2 SU in conference play this season as part of an overall record of 8-4. The Bulls bring a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS into this bowl game following a 44-3 romp against Central Florida as heavy 24.5-point road favorites in their season finale. They were a profitable 9-2-1 ATS this year and the total has now stayed UNDER in four of their last six games.
The Bulls also bring a solid ground game into this matchup that averaged 242.9 yards a game. Marlon Mack led the way with 1,273 rushing yards and eight touchdown runs and quarterback Quinton Flowers proved to be a double threat with 2,023 yards passing and 21 touchdown throws to go along with another 883 yards and 10 scores on the ground. South Florida was also known for having a stingy defense that held opposing teams to an average of just 21.1 points a game.
The Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last five nonconference games, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games played in December.
The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games played in December.
These two played a home-and-home series back in 2009 and 2010 with South Florida winning both games SU and Western Kentucky covering each time as a 20+ point underdog. The total stayed UNDER in both contests.