Last Time Out:
Wolfsburg defeated FC Koln 1-0; Eintracht Frankfurt edged Borussia Dortmund 2-1.
Previous meeting:
Wolfsburg topped Frankfurt 2-1 on December 11 at Volkswagen Arena in Wolfsburg.
About the Matchup:
With traditional German powers like Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen taking a step back this season, the door has been thrust wide open for Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt to crash the Champions League party and earn the riches that come with it. For Wolfsburg, gaining a spot in the the Champions League would be especially gratifying because the Wolves were a draw away from an automatic bid to the Europa League last year, only to fall to Bayern Munich on the final day while Hoffenheim stole their spot by thrashing a disinterested Dortmund. With seven matches to go, a win here would make Champions League qualification all but certain. But that would mean doing something that nobody has done all season: come to Frankfurt and win. The Eagles are so far undefeated at home in 2020-21, and not even Bayern Munich could penetrate the aura of invincibility at Deutsche Bank Park. It’s been 60 years since Champions League soccer was played in Frankfurt, but Eintracht Frankfurt’s home form has made it possible: the Eagles have claimed victory in six of their past seven home matches, only having to settle for a draw against Stuttgart. But Wolfsburg are one of only three teams to ground the Eagles all season, and they’re winners in 10 of their past 12 matches. Something’s got to give in this race for the Champions League.
Scouting Wolfsburg:
Some players are only comfortable playing on their home grounds, but Wout Weghorst certainly isn’t one of them. The Dutchman is a big reason that Wolfsburg has been difficult to beat no matter where it plays and has emerged a winner in five of its past six trips away from Volkswagen Arena. Weghorst has found the net in four of the Wolves’ past six road matches, with all but one of those coming in the first half. And that’s what makes Wolfsburg dangerous and vulnerable at the same time: if the Wolves don’t jump on you early, they’re probably not going to at all. Prior to the win over Koln, in which the goal came from Josip Brekalo in the 69th minute, Wolfsburg had played nine consecutive matches in which the side that was ahead at halftime held on to win (and the one tied match stayed tied through the final whistle). Once the Wolves gain an edge, they rarely lose it, but they’re also not likely to come from behind either.
Scouting Eintracht Frankfurt:
But if anyone can cause Wolfsburg to crack when it’s holding a lead, it’s probably Eintracht Frankfurt. While the Wolves tend to do their damage in the first half, the Eagles are experts in coming from behind and finding the winner late. Eintracht Frankfurt is so comfortable with falling behind that it sometimes forgets how to play when it has the early lead. The Eagles have lost just three matches this year, and in two of them (Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen), they found the net first. An ideal match for Eintracht Frankfurt sees it level at halftime and turn into a victory in the second half. The win over Borussia Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park followed that script beautifully: the Eagles scored first when Dortmund put the ball in its own net and ended up tied at 1 at the break. Andre Silva then snatched all three points for Frankfurt by scoring in the 87th minute, marking the fourth match in a row where the Eagles have scored in the final 30 minutes.
Dan’s Score Prediction:
The past two meetings between these sides have finished 2-1, and the conditions are right for that scoreline to repeat a third time. It’s hard to pick against a team coming off three straight wins like Wolfsburg, but the reality is that of those three sides, the only team the Wolves beat that’s definitely going to be in the Bundesliga next year is Werder Bremen. Frankfurt, on the other hand, has played five top-half sides in its past six matches and didn’t lose to any of the five, even beating Bayern. The Eagles are in better form, and I’ll take them to claim a 2-1 win at +875.