Martin Truex Jr. showed the field at Darlington that he is ready for the Chase with this past Sunday night’s trip to Victory Lane. Kevin Harvick finished second as one of the top favorites to win that race and Kyle Larson stayed hot with a third-place run. For the second week in a row I went with Jimmie Johnson as my top-valued pick at +1300 betting odds, but he slipped all the way to 33rd.
The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Saturday night’s race along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by TopBet.
Kevin Harvick’s strong run at Darlington last week should be a warning to the rest of the 16-driver field for the Chase that he has all intentions of reclaiming a Sprint Cup title he won in 2014 and lost by the slimmest of margins the following season. He comes into this race as one of two +600 favorites to end the regular season racing schedule on a high note with a win. The No. 4 Chevrolet is still on top of the current Sprint Cup standings in terms of points with 840 and this team has now finished sixth or better in six of the last seven point-race events. One of Harvick’s 12 Top 5 finishes this season came at Richmond earlier in the season and his average finishing position at this track over the course of his Sprint Cup career is 10.6.
The other driver listed as a +600 favorite to win on Saturday is no stranger to Victory Lane this year. Kyle Busch is one of two drivers with four point-race victories on this season’s resume, which is the most in the field. The No. 18 Toyota has had its issues the past three races with finishes outside the Top 10, but overall on the year this team has placed inside the Top 5 in 11 of the first 25 point-race events. Adding even more value to these odds is Busch’s second-place finish at Richmond in the first race here this year. This followed a runner-up finish in this race last season. His average finishing position at this track is an impressive 6.9.
There is a group of four drivers listed as +800 third favorites to win the week including Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin, but I think the best value in these odds belongs to Carl Edwards. He is in fourth place in the standings with 746 total points on the strength of 15 Top 10 finishes including seven that were actually in the Top 5. The No. 19 Toyota has also struggled a bit as of late and you would have to go back to the race at Kentucky in early July to find its last Top 5 run. Edwards is coming off a disappointing 19th-place run at Darlington, but the main reason I do like the value in these odds is his victory in the first race at Richmond this year.