San Francisco lost their 9th-straight game last week, a 30-17 loss to New England. Miami rallied for a 14-10 win against Los Angeles last Sunday.
Despite the switch to QB Colin Kaepernick, the 49ers’ offense continues to be a weakness. They have averaged only 18.6 ppg over the past 5 games and the passing game ranks last in the league at 190 ypg. WR Jeremy Kerley has 40 catches and WR Quinton Patton has 30. No other player has more than 19. The Dolphins allow 224.5 ypg through the air and have a very respectable 14-9 TD/INT ratio allowed. They also have 23 sacks and should be able to pressure Kaepernick inside and out. Mobile QBs have given Miami some problems this season but I expect them to spy Kaepernick on occasion as the offense lacks playmakers. If they can keep him in the pocket, they should have success. RB Carlos Hyde has scored 6 TDs but averages only 3.8 ypc. He should still get 20+ touches in this contest and the Dolphins defense hasn’t been at its best defending the run. I expect them to crowd the line in this one as San Francisco lacks a receiver that needs extra coverage.
The Dolphins have won 5 games in a row and until last week, the offense was the reason. They averaged 29 ppg in the previous 4 games before finally scoring 2 late TDs in the final 6 minutes last week. QB Ryan Tannehill has slowly come around and has his QB rating up to 91.1. WRs Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker are clearly the top 2 targets but WR Kenny Stills leads the team in TD catches (4) and yards per catch (17.7). Look for Tannehill to take some deep shots against a defense that yields 251.6 ypg through the air. RB Jay Ajayi was held to 77 yards last week but he should do much better this week against the league’s worst run defense (179.5 ypg). He is averaging 5.6 ypc and should get 25+ carries in this one. If the 49ers play too close to the line, their vulnerable secondary could be in trouble. The Dolphins do have some injury issues on their o-line but as they showed last week, they will stick with Ajayi even if the running game isn’t productive early on.
Public Money Consensus
The public is betting on the Dolphins with 60% of the action landing on that side of the point spread. On the total side the UNDER is the big play with 58% of the bets and it has been reflected in the line that has dropped from its opener of 46.5 to as low as 44 at the sharper books.