Danny Wolf

Rutgers vs Michigan Picks and Predictions: Defenses Dictate Under Value

By Rich Crew
Date: 27/02/2025 9:00 pm
Location: Crisler Center
TV: TBA

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Michigan -9.5
Moneyline: Michigan -9.5 (-105) | Rutgers +9.5 (-115)
Total: 155.5

The Michigan Wolverines host Rutgers at Crisler Center as substantial home favorites after narrowly escaping their previous meeting with a 66-63 win. With a strong historical trend toward Unders between these programs and Michigan’s elite defensive metrics, the total presents the most compelling betting opportunity.

Game Overview

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights head to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines in a Big Ten showdown. Rutgers has had a rocky season, sitting at .500 overall, while Michigan has been a top-tier team in the conference with a 21-6 record. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a close 66-63 win against Michigan in their last meeting on February 1st, covering the spread as 6.5-point underdogs.

Michigan boasts an impressive 12-1 home record, making them a dominant force at Crisler Center. However, their ATS record is only 13-14, showing some inconsistencies in covering spreads. Meanwhile, Rutgers has struggled on the road with a 3-6 record, but they’ve managed to cover in six of their last ten meetings against Michigan.

Key Matchups & Analysis

Offense vs. Defense

  • Rutgers is shooting 44.8% from the field (184th nationally), facing a Michigan defense allowing just 40.5% (30th nationally).
  • The Scarlet Knights struggle from beyond the arc, shooting 33.7% (209th), while Michigan’s perimeter defense holds opponents to 31.1% (54th).
  • Michigan’s offense ranks 104th in scoring at 76.7 PPG, while Rutgers holds opponents to 70.2 PPG (128th).

Recent Trends

  • The last ten matchups have heavily favored the Under, going 2-8 in the Over/Under.
  • Rutgers has covered in six of the last ten meetings.
  • Michigan is 7-2 at home, but only 13-14 ATS overall.
  • Rutgers’ road struggles (3-6) could play a factor in their ability to keep this one close.

Betting Pick & Prediction

The Wolverines are the stronger team here, and their home dominance gives them a clear advantage. However, the total is the best angle in this game. The Under has hit in eight of the last ten matchups between these two, and both teams have solid defenses that can slow the pace. With Michigan allowing just 40.5% shooting and Rutgers struggling to score efficiently, expect this to be another lower-scoring battle.

Free Pick: Take Under 155.5 (-110)
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