Two of the last four NBA champions provide TNT’s Thursday night NBA betting action when the Nuggets battle the Bucks in Milwaukee.
Neither team is contending for a top seed in their respective conferences but they can earn top-four seeds, which means they would begin the playoffs at home.
These teams have split their last eight meetings, although strangely only a few of those games played close.
Who do we like here for our free NBA betting pick?
NBA Betting Odds
Thursday’s NBA betting market opened Denver at -2.5 over Milwaukee, with an over/under of right around 241. Early betting action then bumped the Nuggets to -3.5.
Nuggets-Bucks Betting Preview
Denver just bounced back from a loss to the Lakers over the weekend to win at Indiana Monday night 125-116. The Nuggets, favored at -3.5, led that game 64-58 at the half, then pushed their advantage to 17 late in the third quarter and held on from there.
Denver shot 56 percent from the field Monday and out-rebounded the Pacers 46-32.
So the Nuggets have shot 50 percent or better seven times over their last nine games while holding nine of their last 10 foes under 50 percent.
Denver lost to the Lakers Saturday 123-100. But just prior to that the Nuggets won nine games in a row, albeit against an iffy run of opponents. So Denver is 10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS over its last 11 games.
At 38-20 overall the Nuggets are tied with Memphis for second place in the Western Conference, nine games behind first-place Oklahoma City. Denver probably won’t catch the Thunder in the race for that top seed but the No. 2 spot would help avoid OKC for as long as possible in the playoffs.
Meanwhile Milwaukee just had a four-game winning streak snapped by a 100-97 loss at Houston Tuesday night. That game was tied at 95-95 late before the Bucks finally fell down for good, then missed five of their last six shots.
Milwaukee only shot 40 percent from the floor Tuesday and got out-rebounded by the Rockets 53-37.
Two games ago the Bucks shot 51 percent from the floor, beat Miami 120-113 and covered at -4. Three games ago Milwaukee won at Washington 104-101, although it couldn’t quite cover at -5. And four games ago the Bucks beat the Clippers 116-110.
At 32-25 overall Milwaukee sits in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, 15.5 games behind first-place Cleveland. But the Bucks are also only one game behind fourth-place Indiana, which is the difference between who gets home-court advantage for a first-round playoff series.
By the Numbers
Denver ranks No. 1 in the League in FG shooting at 51 percent and 3rd in 3-point shooting at 38 percent. But Milwaukee ranks 3rd in FG defense at 45 percent.
Meanwhile the Bucks are shooting 48 percent from the floor and 39 percent from long range while the Nuggets are allowing opponents to shoot 46 percent.
Also, Denver is out-rebounding opponents by a 46-42 per-game split while Milwaukee is getting out-rebounded 46-44.
Finally, the Nuggets own a 31-14 per-game assist/turnover ratio, the Bucks 25-14.
Nuggets-Bucks Recent History
These teams have split their two meetings each of the last four seasons. Last year each team won on its home court, Denver 113-107, Milwaukee 112-95.
Both those games played under on the totals.
Totals Report
The overs are 34-23 in Nuggets games this season, which are averaging 237 total points.
The unders are 30-28 in Bucks games, which are averaging 226 points.
The unders are 4-0 over the last four meetings between these teams, which averaged 217 points.
