Last Time Out:
New England beat Montreal 2-1; Philadelphia beat New England 2-0.
Previous meeting:
Philadelphia beat New England 2-0 on November 8.
About the Matchup:
Two weeks ago, Philadelphia achieved its proudest moment in franchise history on this same field when it blitzed New England 2-0 in a match that wasn’t even that close. Now the Union will try to make some more positive history by making a playoff run as a favorite. Philadelphia has only won one playoff match in its history — last year against New York City — but in their defense, that was the only playoff match they’ve ever gotten to play as the favorite. They’re certainly the favorite here, especially given their opponent’s own history.
That history would be one playoff win in six years, and that’s the record New England brings into its personal house of horrors. The Revolution took yet another loss to Philadelphia two weeks ago, which landed them in the play-in game in the first place. However, that did allow the Revs to build some positive momentum when Gustavo Bou rescued New England with a wonder strike on the final kick of the match against Montreal. Can New England parlay that into an upset against a Philadelphia side that hasn’t played in 16 days?
Scouting New England:
Having Carles Gil and Gustavo Bou on the pitch didn’t make a bit of difference for New England against Philadelphia, as the Revolution made it seven straight losses to the Union at Subaru Park the last time these teams met. It really hasn’t mattered what New England has tried against the Union because nothing has seemed to work when the Revs make the 300-mile journey down I-95. In their last ten trips to Chester, the Revolution have now been outscored 28-5.
So what can New England do differently this time in order to give itself a chance? The main thing the Revs need to do is get their attack on the same page. Up until Bou’s strike, New England had a lot of the ball against Montreal but virtually no purpose to its attack. Part of that was likely because of terrible playing conditions thanks to a waterlogged pitch at Gillette Stadium, but part was also possible because the Revolution just were not on the same page. This is a talented collection of individuals that never had the chance to become a true team and could really surprise a lot of people next year if we get a normal season in 2021.
But for right now, this is a team that’s just trying to survive and advance, and that means riding their two designated players as far as they can take them. Unfortunately, against Philadelphia, that hasn’t been very far. Neither Gil nor Bou has found the net in five matches against the Union, and in fact, the only New England player who has scored against Philadelphia is Tajon Buchanan, one of the Revs’ defenders. Even stranger, those two markers are the only goals Buchanan has scored on the year.
Scouting Philadelphia:
It took some time as expected last time out, but Philadelphia eventually figured it out against the Revs and came up with the win they needed to secure the Shield. Now the Union’s task is to shake off the rust that comes with sitting while their opponent was actually on the pitch. Once again, Philadelphia is likely to be slow to get started, but the Union’s strength in those matches has been their defense and their form at home.
In nine matches this year at Subaru Park, the Union has yet to lose or draw and has yet to concede more than a single goal. Even more incredibly, Philadelphia has never even trailed in a match at home this year, scoring the first goal on all nine occasions. What makes the Union dangerous is that when they get going, there really is no one player to focus on, and until they do get going, their defense can keep the opponent at bay. There’s a reason that no team gave up fewer goals than Philadelphia’s 20, and no team had a better goal differential than the Union’s plus-24. Philadelphia spreads its scoring well among Sergio Santos (eight goals), Kacper Przybylko (seven), and Anthony Fontana (six), and it’s a disciplined side at the back, so chances are few and far between for Union opponents.
Dan’s Score Prediction:
Two goals for Philadelphia seems highly likely. It’s happened in each of their past three meetings, and I can’t see the Revolution defense holding them back here. The question is whether New England can find a marker in there somewhere.
I think they can, and that’s the way I’m going to play this. I’ll back Philadelphia to carry the day with a 2-1 win at +775.