Last Time Out:
Chelsea beat Fulham 2-0; Manchester City handled Crystal Palace 2-0.
Previous meeting:
Chelsea defeated Manchester City 1-0 on April 21 at Wembley in the FA Cup semifinals.
About the Matchup:
Do the Sky Blues get to lift the trophy here? Nothing short of complete collapse from Pep Guardiola’s side will prevent City from claiming its fifth Premier League championship since 2012, as one win in their final four matches or one non-win by archrival Manchester United (the only team that can still catch City) will mathematically clinch the title. However, with such a cushion available to the Sky Blues and a Champions League semifinal played earlier in the week, City might not be concerned about trying to come back and win the title just yet.
That’s especially true given that the opponent is Chelsea, who will be City’s last hurdle in the Champions League final after defeating Real Madrid. The last thing the Blues want to do is show their hand to City in a futile effort to delay the Sky Blues’ championship celebration when both teams will play for a much greater prize in Istanbul in three weeks. However, Chelsea has more urgency than City in this situation because the Blues are still trying to play for a spot in next year’s Champions League. Getting something out of this match would further tighten Chelsea’s grip on one of the top four slots, taking some of the pressure off the Blues when they play for the Champions League crown. With both teams having a longer race to run, will this showdown of the titans turn into nothing more than an appetizer?
Scouting Chelsea:
Chelsea has shown no issue playing defensively ever since Thomas Tuchel took over, and the Blues have already demonstrated that they can shut out Manchester City by doing so in the FA Cup. In Chelsea’s past six games, the Blues have allowed a mere one goal, which came in a draw at Real Madrid. Otherwise, Chelsea has been more than happy to take one or two goals to get themselves in control of the match and get out with the result. The Blues have managed to score in five of their past six games, but never more than twice.
Despite the fact that Chelsea and under 2.5 goals has hit in four of the Blues’ past six matches, Tuchel’s side is actually starting to figure out its attacks. Chelsea only scored twice against Real Madrid, but a large part of that was because the Blues didn’t really need more than a single goal after the first leg gave them such an edge. Chelsea probably could have scored more now that it seems Timo Werner, Christian Pulisic, and Kai Havertz are finally on the same page, but the important thing was that the Blues were never really in danger of giving up the goal to Real Madrid that would have put their Champions League final spot in jeopardy. This team knows how to play for a point, and if that’s the mindset they take, they’re very likely to get it.
Scouting Manchester City:
Yes, City can clinch the championship here, but that’s probably the last thing on Pep Guardiola’s mind. He was brought to Manchester to finally bring home the Champions League title, and with the Sky Blues in the final for the first time in history, the last thing he wants is for Manchester City to: A. show its hand against Chelsea three weeks before the Champions League final and B. pick up an injury because he pushed his best players too hard after playing Tuesday.
As such, look for City to go defensive as well and probably rest a few players, with the goal of walking away with something from this match. Winning the title on Saturday would be nice, but the reality is that as long as City can get a draw here and beat or tie one of Newcastle, Brighton, or Everton (or just beat one even if they lose to Chelsea), they’ll be the champions. City could also claim the crown without doing anything on their own, as the only way they can lose it is if Manchester United can win five matches in 14 days, with three of those coming on Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday. For Guardiola and company, the chance of that happening is so small that City will be very comfortable throwing away two points and playing for the draw.
Dan’s Score Prediction:
Chelsea has shown an irritating tendency to get one more goal than I think they actually need the last few times that I’ve bet on them. Against Fulham, I thought the Blues would be happy to take one goal and get out, but Kai Havertz opted for two (I still won the main bet but missed on the score). Against Real Madrid, I figured Chelsea would be fine with a 1-0 victory…, and then Mason Mount caught Real out of position for the insurance marker.
As such, even though I’m thinking that this finishes at 0-0, I’d look at throwing a second bet on Chelsea to win 1-0 at +950 to cover that possibility that I’m off by one goal again, if you can spare the bankroll. But if one bet is all you want to make here, I’m looking at the scoreless draw at +600.