The Toronto Maple Leafs return to Scotiabank Arena with a chance to close out their first-round series against the Ottawa Senators. After taking the first three games, the Leafs slipped in overtime in Game 4 but still hold a commanding 3–1 series lead. Will Toronto finish the job on home ice, or can Ottawa’s momentum spark another upset?
Key Betting Trends
- Ottawa ATS Record: 36-50-0 overall; 1-5 ATS in last six road games
- Toronto ATS Record: 44-42-0 overall; 5-0 SU in last five home games
- Head-to-Head: Ottawa is 7-1 ATS in last eight games in Toronto
- Ottawa’s Last 10 Games: 5-2-3 SU, 7-3 ATS
- Toronto’s Last 10 Games: 8-1-1 SU, 4-6 ATS
Matchup Breakdown
Toronto largely controlled the early part of the series, winning three straight, including two overtime thrillers. Anthony Stolarz has been steady in net, and the Leafs’ offensive depth — powered by Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander — remains a big edge. Toronto’s power play has clicked at 25.54%, compared to Ottawa’s 23.93%, and they have been strong at home, winning five straight at Scotiabank Arena.
Ottawa stayed alive with a gutsy 4–3 OT win in Game 4, but goaltending remains an issue. Linus Ullmark has struggled, posting just a .843 save percentage across his last five starts. The Senators have also been poor on the road, losing five of their last six away games straight up, and their penalty kill (76.86%) has not been able to consistently slow Toronto’s attack.
Despite Ottawa’s resilience, the Leafs’ overall superiority in scoring, special teams, and goaltending — especially at home — makes it tough to bet against them in this spot.
