Statistics play a huge role in handicapping sports. Past results plus current form can paint a very strong picture for a team’s future results. When it comes to handicapping ice hockey games and, more specifically, the NHL, specific statistics can provide some excellent insight into all 31 teams.
Some of the most basic stats used to handicap NHL games revolve around a team’s goals-per-game average on the offensive end of the ice as well as its goals-against average on defense. These two numbers paint an overall picture of how one team ranks against the rest of the league.
The highest-scoring teams in the NHL are not always the best bets on the money line. High scoring teams should draw the most interest when betting the OVER on the total line. These teams are always going to command a higher total line, but when they can average close to 3.5 goals on their own, the majority of their games are probably going OVER the total no matter how high it is set.
The top defensive teams in the NHL tend to be stronger betting teams on the money line. A hot goalie can often carry their team to a win. Just like the starting pitcher in baseball, the goalie can dictate the outcome if they are able to completely negate the opposing team’s offensive efforts. Teams with the lowest GAA number in the NHL do make good candidates for a play on the UNDER, especially when matched against a low scoring team.
Penalties and the power play are essential components when it comes to NHL stats. The first measure is the overall penalty minutes. Some teams are much more disciplined than others. A low amount of penalties reduces the importance of a team’s penalty kill defensive efforts. On the other hand, if a team is constantly trying to kill off penalties, this is a bigger deterrent to playing the game in the opponent’s end of the ice.
Teams that can take better advantage of the power play on offense become more attractive betting teams. Along with their average goals per game overall, their power play percentage measures how often they score with the man advantage. Picking up even one power-play goal a game can have a huge impact on their overall record.
Fast starts are another important NHL team stat. In general, the team that does score the first goal of the game tends to win 67% of the time. A key stat is a team’s winning percentage when scoring first. The best teams in the league tend to win more than 80% of their games when tallying the first goal. You can also keep track of a team’s overall performance when trailing first in a game.
Another useful stat to follow is a team’s shots on goal. You can refine this search to scoring chances since this is a better indication of a team’s offensive strength. The more opportunities a team has to score, the more goals they will score.
On the defensive end of the ice, the stat to follow is shots against. The more pressure a team has against their goaltender, the more goals they will allow no matter how good a player they have between the pipes.
A final key stat for handicapping NHL games is faceoffs won vs. faceoffs lost. Controlling the puck after a faceoff goes a long way toward controlling the puck in general. The best overall hockey teams are the ones that can play the majority of the game in their opponent’s end of the ice.
