The Toronto Maple Leafs (39-23-3) host the Calgary Flames (30-24-11) in an interconference matchup. Toronto is a heavy favorite despite losing five of their last six games, scoring exactly two goals in four of those losses. The Leafs have dominated this series, winning five straight meetings dating back to 2022. Meanwhile, the Over has hit in six of the last nine matchups. Can Toronto bounce back, or will Calgary pull off the upset?
Betting Odds & Key Trends
- Calgary ATS Record: 32-33-0 (12-13-6 on the road)
- Toronto ATS Record: 32-34-0 (20-12-1 at home)
- Head-to-Head: Toronto leads 8-2 in last 10 meetings
- Calgary’s Last 10 Games: 4-3-3 (3-7 O/U)
- Toronto’s Last 10 Games: 6-3-1 (7-3 O/U)
Matchup Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto ranks 11th in scoring at 3.20 goals per game and allows 2.97 goals per game (15th). Their power play is elite, converting at 24.18% (6th), while their penalty kill sits at 78.35% (17th).
- Recent Form: Toronto has lost 5 of their last 6 games and is 1-5 SU in their last 6 home games.
- Last 5 Games:
- Mar 15 – Lost 2-4 vs Ottawa (0/1 on PP)
- Mar 13 – Lost 2-3 vs Florida (0/3 on PP)
- Mar 10 – Won 4-3 vs Utah (2/5 on PP)
- Mar 8 – Lost 4-7 vs Colorado (1/1 on PP)
- Mar 5 – Lost 2-5 vs Vegas (1/3 on PP)
Calgary Flames
Calgary ranks 21st in offense at 2.60 goals per game and allows 2.92 goals per game (12th). Their power play sits at 21.74% (15th), but the penalty kill has been poor at 75.00% (24th).
- Recent Form: Calgary is 4-3-3 in their last 10 games but has struggled on the road, going 1-4 SU in their last five away games.
- Last 5 Games:
- Mar 14 – Lost 2-4 vs Colorado (1/2 on PP)
- Mar 12 – Lost 3-4 vs Vancouver (1/3 on PP)
- Mar 8 – Won 1-0 vs Montreal (0/1 on PP)
- Mar 6 – Lost 2-3 vs Dallas (0/2 on PP)
- Mar 4 – Won 6-3 vs Philadelphia (1/2 on PP)
Head-to-Head Matchups
Toronto has dominated this series, winning five straight matchups:
- Feb 4, 2025 – Toronto 6, Calgary 3
- Jan 18, 2024 – Toronto 4, Calgary 3
- Nov 10, 2023 – Toronto 5, Calgary 4
- Mar 2, 2023 – Toronto 2, Calgary 1
- Dec 10, 2022 – Toronto 5, Calgary 4
The Over has hit in six of the last nine meetings between these teams.
