So, you want to know how to win money by betting on football games. Well, there have been dozens of books written about this subject, and we could write another one here. But for now, let’s just stick to a few of the basics of successful football handicapping.
How do you predict the future? By looking at what has happened in the past, and projecting current relevant variables onto similar circumstances. Does that make any sense? What we’ve saying here is, do your homework. Size up the two teams involved in a particular game. Does the point spread accurately represent the difference in the relative strength of the two teams? Or is it a number created to produce balanced betting action on the game? Odds are that it’s a combination of the two, and good football handicappers know this.
Football is still a simple, brutal game. Moving the ball down the field, and keeping the other team from doing the same, goes a long way towards winning games. So a few of the key statistics football handicappers should be aware of include average yards rushing and average yards rushing allowed. Is it any surprise that the Pittsburgh Steelers, who won the Super Bowl last year, outrushed their opponents by an average of 53 yards per game last year, while the lowly 4-12 Oakland Raiders got outgained on the ground by more than 40 yards a game?
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Other things to look for when handicapping a football game include whether a team has been hot or cold in recent weeks, past performances vs. the opponent, motivation (are they still in the playoff race? Or just playing out the season?), the matchup of the styles of play, the weather, key injuries, and more.
Picking winners is, of course, important when trying to win money betting on football games. But equally important is the idea of money management. Bettors should have an idea of how much they’re willing to risk as a “standard” wager, whether it be $20 or $1,000. Now, if a bettor really likes a particular team, sure, they can wager more than they might regularly. But bettors, beware: Losses in those cases will only increase the percentage of standard wagers a bettor must now win to come out ahead in the long run.
And football bettors should avoid playing “catch-up,” or trying to get back a weekend’s worth of losses in one Sunday night or Monday night game. Those who try this often find themselves in a much deeper hole than the one they’ve already dug for themselves. Bad times will come to football bettors; it’s unavoidable. But when they do, bettors should accept them for what they are, and move on.
Sharp football handicappers do more than just research the games and manage their money. They shop around for the sportsbook with the best line on a particular game. They bet with their head, and not with their heart. And they take into account the betting public’s influence on point spreads, and many times bet the opposite way. On top of all this, a good football handicapper is bold, jumping on games early in the week, showing faith in his handicapping prowess by betting even during cold streaks, but staying smart by only betting what he can afford to lose.
Another key to ending up in the black over the course of the football season is finding a sportsbook that has reduced juice. No matter how successful a football season you are having you are going to lose some games. Why pay -110 on your losing wagers when the very same football bet at another sportsbook charges you -105. The efffect on your bankroll is substantial over the long haul and certainly increases your odds on having profitable long term results. Get on the fast track to winning by reading up on reduced juice sports betting.
Very few football handicappers can say they are ahead of the game after years of betting. But most of them follow these simple wagering rules, and a few others. By doing so, they have the advantage of placing wagers based on good information and sound reasoning, which, in the long run, can lead to profits.
