Remember back in week 1 when the Packers were destroyed by the Saints 38-3? Remember people questioning if Aaron Rodgers had purposely sabotaged the team? Well, I’m sure all of those rumors seem like a distant memory because the Packers have rattled off five straight victories, including a 24-14 win over NFC North rival Chicago last Sunday. At 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS, the Packers are tied for the 2nd best record (SU and ATS) in the NFC behind the undefeated Arizona Cardinals. On Sunday, Green Bay will have every opportunity to keep their momentum going when they host the struggling Washington Football Team at Lambeau Field as 9.5 point favorites!
Washington dropped their 2nd straight game last week in a 31-13 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs. In many ways, it was the same story we have seen throughout the season from Washington highlighted by an underperforming defense and an inconsistent offense. In the loss to Kansas City, Washington came away with three turnovers but managed to convert those turnovers into just 276 total yards resulting in a measly 13 points. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke had another dismal afternoon completing just 24 of 39 passing for 182 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The lone bright spot of the afternoon came on a 39-yard touchdown pass to backup TE Ricky Seals-Jones. Obviously, that type of inconsistency on offense is problematic in any match-up at the professional level, and the offensive concerns are the main reason that Washington is nearly double-digit underdogs going into their Week 7 match-up against the Packers.
Washington vs. Green Bay Betting Analysis
I feel like the public consensus is that Green Bay is just overwhelming opponents on the offensive side of the football. I mean, after all, the Packers have red carpet talent in Rodgers, WR Davante Adams, and RB Aaron Jones. What people may not realize is the Packers are not blowing opponents away as we often saw during the 2020 season. Running back Aaron Jones has just 385 yards on the ground through the first six games. The offensive line has struggled to protect Rodgers, and if not for the Rodgers to Adams connection that has resulted in 46 receptions for 668 yards, this offense may be downright forgettable.
In fact, Green Bay’s offense is actually ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, averaging just 343 yards per game on the season. To put things into perspective, Washington is the next worst team in the NFL, averaging just 336 yards per game on the offensive side of the football. Obviously, bettors may be asking, well, what does this all mean? It simply means that Green Bay is underperforming compared to the public’s perception. The problem is that we can’t really bank on Washington exploiting those issues due to their own struggles. The Packers have also historically had stronger home vs. away splits, which hardly advocates for the underdog in Washington this week.
However, I do believe that all of this inefficiency on the offensive side of the football should bring the total 49 into question. The Packers have hit the “under” in four of their six games this season and would not be surprised if that trend continues. Despite Washington’s pass defense ranking as the worst unit in the league, allowing 309 yards per game, they still get decent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which is the key to disrupting Rodgers. Additionally, with starting RB Antonio Gibson’s status in jeopardy, I am expecting to see a heavy dose of RB J.D McKissic, which will feature a lot of check-down passing opportunity options. The Packers defense is vulnerable to underneath attack, and I expect that will give Washington some chances at extended drives. Still, I would be willing to bet that the majority of those drives do not result in touchdowns.
More Picks: Kansas City at Tennessee Point Spread Play
Washington vs. Green Bay Betting Trends
- Washington is 1-5 ATS in the last six games
- Washington is 2-5 SU in the past seven games
- Washington is 3-7 SU in the last ten games against Green Bay
- Washington is 4-2 ATS in the previous six games against Green Bay
- Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in the last five games
- Green Bay has hit the under in four of six games this season
- Green Bay is 16-2 SU in the last 18 games at home
- The “over” has chased in four of the last five games between Washington and Green Bay
