kansas-city-chiefs-damien-williams-600_1

Tennessee Titans vs  Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship Pick

By Loot
Date: 19/01/2020 3:05 pm
Location: Arrowhead Stadium
TV: Fox

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Kansas City -7.5
Total: 52

The Tennessee Titans take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. It’s a high-stakes showdown, with the winner going to the Super Bowl—something that isn’t exactly old-hat with either of these teams, with the Chiefs shut out of the big game since 1970, with the Titans once getting to the Big Game, back in 2000. To get here, Tennessee has scored two big road upsets, including Saturday’s 28-12 win over top-seeded Baltimore. The Chiefs had it tough in the divisional round, as things looked dire on Sunday with the Texans jumping out to a 24-0 lead in Arrowhead. In the end, the Chiefs were cruising, putting the finishing touches on a 51-31 win where they picked the Houston “D” apart. Can they do it again this week?

What Week Ten Tells Us

It tells us a lot. On the one hand, you don’t want to use a regular-season result as a roadmap, but Tennessee’s 35-32 win over the Chiefs in Nashville was revealing. It shows us that when these teams mesh, defense becomes a bit of an afterthought. It also shows us that Tennessee is able to withstand a high-octane showing from Patrick Mahomes, who threw for 446 yards and still couldn’t get the Chiefs over the hump. We see Derrick Henry carrying this Titans team with otherworldly rushing performances, with 588 yards in the last three games—all road contests that were of a must-win nature. In week ten, Henry’s 188 yards were a huge part of the winning equation against the Chiefs. Being in record-setting form and having thrived against this defense before, it might be hard to deny Henry is this spot.

Bovada-200.gif
Get an additional $250 in Sign-Up Bonus To Wager on the AFC Championship Game
CLICK HERE

On one hand, the Titans were a 9-win team that needed a win in week 17 to get into the playoffs. But their week ten win over the Chiefs, their final-week must-win over Houston, and their playoff wins over New England and Baltimore show they can thrive in the most elevated contexts of this conference. It’s not a matter of if. They have a monster that can control games and make things better on both sides of the ball. This time, however, on the road at Arrowhead against a tempered Chiefs squad that has won every game since that week ten loss, it might be a little tougher.

Why the Chiefs are a Major Threat

It didn’t look like it at times on Sunday, but the KC defense has been able to pick up their form as of late, closing the regular season well and tightening up significantly after the rough start against Houston in the divisional round. And while the offensive explosion from the Chiefs was obviously key to the comeback win on Sunday, it was the defense that helped stage it, with some big playmaking by guys like Daniel Sorensen and peaking Frank Clark. The offense has a variety of weapons, with Patrick Mahomes and a full cast, including two of the more dangerous aerial targets in the business in TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill. Both Kelce and RB Damien Williams had three TDs apiece on Sunday. They’re at home, with an axe to grind after coming so close last season, and can’t be overlooked.

The Tough Questions

It’s hard to remember a lot of teams able to go on the road four straight weeks against playoff teams and come out ahead in all of them. Will reality come crashing down on Tennessee? Is it just too crazy for a running back to string together this many near-200 yard games, while a so-so defense all season suddenly holds conference powers to almost nothing? It’s just really hard to question the formula for success right now. Our eyes do not deceive us.

If the Chiefs start the game as they did against Houston, they might not get off the hook. It again showed the Chiefs are vulnerable. The defense might be improved, but it’s still dicey at this level, especially after being unable to stop Henry a few months ago. Did the Chiefs catch a bad draw having to face a Titans team that matches up well against them?

Titans at Chiefs Prediction

If a road-weary Titans team were to get slapped around on Sunday by a fresher Chiefs team that built up some momentum last week, it wouldn’t be all that surprising. It still seems reasonable to perceive these teams as matching up pretty well against each other, where a somewhat evenly-contested game will ensue. It’s hard not to be a little scared on either side of this coin, but I feel pretty good about getting this many points on Tennessee right now. I’ll take the Titans.

Free Pick: Take the Titans +7.5
Bovada

SOLID 50% BONUS - UP TO $250 FREE!

NFL Free Picks

AFC Championship Odds, Picks & Value Bets

AFC Championship Odds, Picks & Value Bets

Breaking down current Bovada odds for the AFC title race, Rich Crew identifies where bettors can still find edge in a market ruled by Mahomes, Allen, and a few mispriced contenders.

NFC Championship Odds

NFC Championship Odds

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the reigning Super Bowl Champions heading into the 2021 NFL season. With veteran quarterback Tom Brady still under center, they are also set as +300 favorites to win the NFC this season to get the chance to defend that NFL title. Betting...

Super Bowl Odds

Super Bowl Odds

The NFL offseason wears on with all 32 teams getting ready for the new season. Top-rated online sportsbooks such as BetOnline are also busy getting ready with a complete set of updated 2021 NFL futures. Leading the way are the recently updated futures odds to win...

Finding the Best Value in Betting NFL Season Props

Finding the Best Value in Betting NFL Season Props

Along with added betting options for NFL futures heading into a new season, NFL season-long props are another popular way to add some early football action to your overall betting strategy.
From wagering on individual player performances to props covering the season-long results for each of the 32 NFL teams, there is always some solid betting value to be found in the posted preseason odds.

Finding the Best Value in Betting NFL Season Props

Finding the Best Value in Betting NFL Futures

As the countdown continues to the start of another NFL season, the hottest action on the board at online sportsbooks is mainly focused on betting NFL futures. From betting odds to win this season’s Super Bowl to the projected win total for all 32 teams, there are any...

BEST SPORTSBOOK BONUSES

Stop wasting money! Start receiving at 30% Rebate at Betanysports

YES! There are still online sportsbooks where your credit card will work! You get a 50% bonus as well! –> Bovada

Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a MASSIVE 50% Sign-on bonus! MyBookie