Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds, Trends, Free Pick

One of the most underrated games on the week 12 slate will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday when the Indianapolis Colts host the Tennessee Titans in a huge AFC South showdown. The Titans and the Colts are both 7-3 SU, which is the best record in the division. The Colts hold the advantage in the tie-breaker thanks to their 34-17 victory over the Titans back just two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. Despite the week ten outcome, this week’s showdown between the Titans and Colts will give the winner a big edge in the divisional race as we enter postseason territory.

Another reason this game has piqued my interest is because both the Titans and Colts are fresh off impressive victories. The Titans scored an overtime victory over the Ravens thanks to Derrick Henry’s 29-yard walk-off touchdown run. Meanwhile, the Colts also pulled out an electric overtime win against the Packers, which was sealed by a 39-yard field goal from Rodrigo Blankenship. Ultimately, the Colts appear to have the momentum heading into this week’s showdown. Not only did they beat the Titans convincingly two weeks ago, but the Colts have also won 4 of the last five games. Even with the so-called momentum, the Colts are listed as mere 4 point favorites going into this Sunday’s home game against Tennessee.

Derrick Henry vs. Colts Defense

By now, everyone in the nation knows that to stop the Titans on offense, everything starts and stops with RB Derrick Henry. Granted, QB Ryan Tannehill is having an exceptional season with 22 touchdowns and four picks. With that said, the Titans offense still revolves around Derrick Henry, and often their passing success is a direct result of the running threat. Henry took over the NFL’s leading rushing mark last weekend following a 28 carry, 133 rushing yards, and one touchdown performance in the win over the Ravens. Henry has averaged more than 100 yards per game on the ground and also eclipsed that number in the first meeting against the Colts with a 19-103-0 rushing line.

With so much emphasis around the Titans rushing attack and Henry’s typical mammoth workload, it provides a great match-up because the Colts have the NFL’s top defense. Against the run, the Colts officially rank 3rd in the league allowing just 89 yards per game on the ground. Overall the Colts rank in the top 5 in every major defensive category, including takeaways and turnover ratio. Simply put, the Colts have a strong match-up against the Titans offense, but it is far from a guaranteed outcome. As stated earlier, Henry had success rushing against the Colts in the Week 10 meeting. In that game, Tannehill struggled significantly, completing just 15 of 27 passing for 147 yards and a touchdown. Therefore if we get a better performance out of Tannehill this week, it would not be inconceivable to see the Titans challenge for the outright victory, especially if they can get WR AJ Brown involved throughout the game.

Titans vs. Colts Prediction

I expect this Sunday’s game to be a much tougher and physical football game than the week ten meeting that was given some glamour under the Thursday Night Football audience. Phillip Rivers threw for more than 300 yards in that game, and Nyheim Hines exploded for a huge night. To be clear, the Colts do not normally post huge offensive numbers, and when they do, it is often a product of the defenses’ success. I expect the Titans will keep their focus on the ground again this week, have success and get a better performance from Tannehill. Overall, I just expect scoring to be more difficult this week because the stakes will be raised. Traditionally, the Titans and Colts have produced low scoring affairs. Despite meeting twice each year, the last time the Titans and Colts scored more than 51 points (listed total) was back in 2017. I believe there is serious value in the under 51, and that is the play I would recommend in this contest.

Titans vs. Colts Betting Trends

• The Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Titans have hit the “over” in seven of the last nine games
• The Titans have hit the “over” in four of the last five road games.
• The Colts are 6-3 ATS in the last nine games.
• The Colts have hit the “over” in five of the last six games.
• The Colts are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings against the Titans.