Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Week 17 Pick

The Tennessee Titans come into NRG Stadium for a high-stakes week 17 AFC South showdown with the Houston Texans. Houston clinched the division on Saturday with a nice 23-20 road-win over the streaking Bucs. It was their fourth win in five games and also the fourth time they won the division in the last five seasons. Tennessee had it tough last week, falling to a peaking Saints’ squad, 38-28. Luckily for them, the Steelers fell to the Jets, meaning a wild card spot is still within sights. These teams played two weeks ago in Nashville. Houston got off to a big lead and narrowly held off a late-surging Tennessee bunch to get the important 24-21 win. Who can get the upper hand at NRG Stadium this week?

Playoff Ramifications

For a team that started 2-4 and has lost their last two games, Tennessee is fortunate to still be in the postseason mix. If they win, they’re in—it doesn’t get any more clear-cut than that. If they lose, they can still get in, but would some other things to go right. What Houston has to gain here is less-clear. As of now, they’re locked into the 4-seed. They can’t end up worse than that, while a Titans win and a KC loss could put them in the 3-seed. The urgency is most certainly in the Titans’ corner in this one.

Examining the Point Spread

The urgency component has been accommodated for in the spread and to somewhat of an extensive degree. One would figure without that, Houston would be about a 4-point favorite at home, rather than a 5-point underdog. Therefore, the critical question becomes whether Tennessee’s urgency is worth 9-10 points. They’re playing a team that held them scoreless in the first half a few weeks ago. Tennessee is also dealing with some personnel issues and for an offense that is strapped for firepower, having Corey Davis and especially Derrick Henry being iffy isn’t good.

It’s a mixed bag. We see a Houston team that doesn’t have a ton to gain. Being in the third or fourth seed and having it all hinging on the Chargers beating the Chiefs just isn’t a lot for the Texans to sink their teeth into when compared to the scenario the Titans face. It’s just that we don’t always see urgency manifest the way you would suspect it to. Talk to longtime bettors and ask them how well they fared the times they decided to just bet on the week 17 teams that needed it more. Teams that have less to play for don’t always stink it up. It’s not so much an issue of if the Titans will be better off with the stakes being so much higher for them. It’s just a question if it will be to this degree.

Texans’ Headspace

A lot of this obviously comes down to the Texans’ outlook. If they approach this half-cocked, it could be a massacre against a highly-capable and hungry Titans’ bunch. After seeing Will Fuller go down last week, they might be uneasy about exposing any more of their big weapons to injury. Or maybe coach O’Brien will have them as on-point as they would otherwise be, not looking to drop momentum with a playoff game the next week. In the first game between these divisional rivals, some Deshaun Watson picks, and second-half apathy let the Titans crawl back into the game, though a late touchdown for Tennessee perhaps made it look closer than it was. For the most part, Tennessee never looked the role of a winner in that game, which was as urgent a regular-season game as they’ve had all season.

What the Texans do well manifested a few weeks ago against Tennessee. Watson’s miscues and how the offense took its foot off the gas late was upsetting, but everyone got involved, from DeAndre Hopkins to Carlos Hyde, who had a big day on the ground. Tennessee had some success, as well, with Derrick Henry on the ground. After missing last week, we will see if Henry is at full-power this week—a dicey proposition. WR Corey Davis going down with a concussion doesn’t help a strapped offense, with Ryan Tannehill’s targets now possibly even thinner. Dion Lewis is a nice backup to have at running back, but this is a bad time to be having key injury issues in areas where the Titans can ill-afford it.