Tampa Bay ended their 5-game losing streak with a 15-10 victory over the Jets last Sunday. Miami was dominated in a 45-21 loss to Carolina on Monday night.
The Buccaneers offense welcomes back WR Mike Evans after his 1-game suspension. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick gets another start as QB Jameis Winston is out resting his injured shoulder. WR DeSean Jackson had a good game with Fitzpatrick under center and the Dolphins have to be aware of his deep speed. TE Cameron Brate has held off rookie TE O.J. Howard and is another big target for Fitzpatrick to throw to. Miami’s pass defense gives up 225 ypg and they have allowed 16 TD passes to only 3 interceptions this year. Their pass rush has been a disappointment as well. There are some o-line issues with Tampa Bay right now and I expect the Fins to be able to get some pressure on Fitzpatrick both inside and outside. The running game is still stuck in neutral as the Buccaneers average only 82.8 ypg. Miami gives up 116 ypg on the ground and they need their front seven to contain RB Doug Martin and company so their pass rushers can tee off on Fitzpatrick. The Buccaneers offense has scored a total of 2 TDs in their past 3 games so the Dolphins defense should be able to contain them.
Miami QB Jay Cutler has been a little better than most expected but the offense is still a big work in progress. Cutler has thrown 9 TD passes over his past 4 games and faces a defense that allows 266.4 ypg through the air (29th in the league). WR Jarvis Landry is among the league leaders with 61 receptions and WRs Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker are also threats down the field. Cutler is also discovering how valuable TE Julius Thomas can be and has been looking in his direction more in recent games. Tampa Bay had 6 sacks against New York giving them 14 on the year. The Dolphins have given up 17 sacks so they should be able to provide Cutler with time to throw. RBs Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams are toting the rock for Miami since RB Jay Ajayi was traded and I look for Drake to get the lion’s share of the carries this Sunday. The Dolphins are averaging a mere 80.1 ypg on the ground so I look for Cutler to lead the offense.
Public Money Consensus
In this Week 11 NFL matchup between Tampa Bay and Miami have the public slightly favoring the Buc’s at pickem with just 51%. The over/under bettors are evenly split on the total of this game.
