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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys NFL Pick – Odds – Free ATS Pick

By David Schwab
Date: 18/12/2016 8:30 pm
Location: AT&T Stadium
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Dallas -7
Total: 46

Week 15 in the NFL takes us back to AT&T Stadium for Sunday night’s NFC clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys. Game time from Big D is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

Tampa Bay at Dallas Game Overview

The Buccaneers come into this conference tilt riding a five-game winning streak both straight-up and against the spread to keep pace with Atlanta for the lead in the NFC South at 8-5 (SU and ATS). The total stayed UNDER 51.5 in Sunday’s 16-11 victory against New Orleans as two-point home favorites and it has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in their last four games. Tampa Bay has closed as an underdog in 10 of its first 13 games and it has managed to cover in seven of those contests.

Second-year quarterback Jameis Winston has been able to work past the inconsistency that plagued his game in the first half of the season. While he did not put up big numbers in Sunday’s key divisional win over the Saints with 184 yards passing, he managed the game well with zero turnovers. One of the big reasons for Tampa Bay’s success this season has been an opportunistic defense that is tied for first in the league in takeaways with 25.

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While there is hardly any reason to panic after Dallas lost to the New York Giants for the second time this season in Sunday night’s 10-7 setback as a 3.5-point road favorite, bettors need to be a bit wary of the Cowboys’ 0-3 mark ATS in their last three games following an almost perfect 9-0-1 start ATS. The total stayed well UNDER the 47-point closing line in that game and it has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games.

Maybe it is the pressure of being a rookie or maybe it is the pressure of playing ahead of a 14-season veteran at quarterback, but there are some definite issues in Dak Prescott’s game over the past few weeks. He has failed to throw for more than 200 yards in his last three starts and his completion percentage plummeted to 45.9 in last week’s loss to New York. Rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott remains on pace to win the NFL rushing title with 1,392 yards on 287 carries, but the Cowboys’ offense as a whole has only scored a combined 24 points in its last two games.

Tampa Bay at Dallas Game Betting Trends

  • The Buccaneers have run their record to 5-1 both SU and ATS in their last six road games. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of their last five games played on the road.
  • The Cowboys have won their last five home games this season SU while going 4-1 ATS; however if you go back over their last 19 home games they fall to just 6-11-2 ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of their last five games at home.
  • Head-to-head in this NFC clash, Dallas has won nine of its last 10 home games against Tampa Bay SU and it has a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings at home. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Big D.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys Prediction

Bettors obviously fear that there are some deeper cracks in the foundation with Dallas by edging this spread down to a touchdown after it opened at 7.5 points. Tampa Bay is a solid playoff team this season, but it is hard to completely discount everything that the Cowboys have accomplished before failing to cover in their last three games.

I am going to roll the dice that Dallas does return to form in front of the home-town crowd this Sunday night by covering the touchdown spread against the Bucs.

Free Pick: Take Dallas -7
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