We made our picks on the side and total for Sunday’s Super Bowl LIX, so now it’s time to peruse the Super Bowl prop board. First things first; our picks on the side and total will of course help determine what props we’ll play. Unless we want to bet super counter-intuitively, but we’re not that bright. Our belief – and bet – is Philadelphia, with RB Saquon Barkley and the top defense in the League, will win the ground battle in this game and ultimately the game itself. We’re also thinking both these teams can play grind-it-out, field-position football, and Kansas City’s defense ain’t bad, either. Plus, these teams don’t turn the ball over too often. So we’re playing the under 48.5 on the total. That said, here’s a sampling of what we like on the Super Bowl LIX prop board.
Scoreless quarter (+300)
As usual the offenses get most of the ink but these two defenses are great. And this game could play out at least a couple of ways that would help our bet on the under. Might these offenses begin a bit conservatively? Or maybe this game will settle into a grinder around the second and third quarters. It wouldn’t take much to win this wager; a couple of first downs and a punt and a couple first downs and a punt can easily run most of a quarter out. We like the +300 price on this prop. Jalen Hurts under 39.5 rushing yards/Barkley over 113.5 rushing yards A combo bet. Philadelphia might give Barkley a chance at an All-Timer of a game, like Franco Harris in Super Bowl IX, or John Riggins in Super Bowl XVII, or even Marcus Allen in Super Bowl XVIII. Feed ‘im and ride ‘im to some big numbers and victory. And the more carries Barkley gets, the fewer Hurts will take.
DeVonta Smith – one touchdown +260
Smith got 27 targets and scored three touchdowns over Philly’s last three regular-season games. But he’s only got 12 and zero during this playoff run. Maybe it’s his turn Sunday night.
Hollywood Brown – one touchdown +270
Recently back from injury, Brown got 15 targets combined in Weeks 16 and 17, and five in the AFC championship game. He hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, but he and Mahomes look like they’re building some chemistry.
The margin of Victory – 3-way – less than six points +135
There are three ways to play this prop: Kansas City to win by at least six points at +160, Philadelphia to win by at least six at +190, and “any other result” at +135, which gives us 10 points in the middle at a + price. These teams played two close games in recent seasons – the Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII by three points, the Eagles won at Arrowhead last season by four – and there’s no reason to believe this game won’t play close, too.
Any kicker to make 60+ yard field goal +1800
Both Kansas City’s Butker and Philly’s Elliot have a couple of 60-yarders to their career credit, and conditions in the Super Dome are usually perfect. Also, those kickers’ balls are filled with helium.
