The new NFL season gets underway the first full week of September and from here on in for the next 17 weeks all the games count for real in the standings.
Each of the league’s 32 teams heads into their season opener with dreams of winning this year’s Super Bowl. The reality of the situation is that only a handful of those teams have a legitimate chance to make that dream come true.
All the top online sportsbooks have recently updated their NFL futures odds to win Super Bowl LIV, and the Top 5 list for almost every site looks basically the same. Using the posted odds at the highly popular online sportsbook BetOnline, I am in search of the best value in that book’s current numbers.
A Dead Heat at The Top
Coming off their second Super Bowl title in three seasons, the New England Patriots were the early favorites to win it all again this season. The Patriots have been the most dominant NFL franchise for quite some time with Bill Belichick as head coach and Tom Brady leading the offense in a first-ballot Hall of Fame career.
Early bettors may be sensing a changing of the guard in the AFC with the Kansas City Chiefs attracting quite a bit of Super Bowl money. These two teams met in last year’s AFC title game, and they are heavily favored to once again clash for a spot in Super Bowl LIV from that conference. Each team has odds of +800 to win this year’s league title as top favorites. As a side note, each team is listed at +400 odds to win the AFC.
Head-to-head, it never makes sense to bet against New England, but I happen to agree that it could be Kansas City’s turn to take over the top spot in the NFL. I do not have the Chiefs set as my top-valued pick to win Super Bowl LIV, but I do have them getting past the Patriots this time around with league MVP Patrick Mahomes picking up where he left off last season.
Finding the Best Value in The Top 5
Next on the list as a +1000 third-favorite is the New Orleans Saints. They are followed closely by the Philadelphia Eagles at +1200. The Top 5 actually gets expanded to six teams with both the Los Angeles Chargers and Rams next at +1400 betting odds.
You could make a strong case to bet on any of these four teams, but one does stand out from the rest as the best value on the board. The Eagles won Super Bowl LII two years ago by stunning the Patriots in a wild 41-33 victory as 4.5-point underdogs. The simple fact that they already beat the best team in the NFL in the biggest game of the season gives them a slight edge against the other top contenders.
The most significant edge comes with a big caveat. Carson Wentz is entering his fourth season as the team’s starting quarterback. Yet, he has never played in a postseason game. If he can stay healthy for the entire 16-game regular season, he will be primed to lead his team to Super Bowl glory with Nick Foles (Super Bowl LII MVP) playing for Jacksonville.
As a second option, there is still some solid value in New Orleans. Drew Brees is a Hall of Fame quarterback approaching the end of his stellar career. The motivation from a pair of bitter losses in the past two postseason runs could be enough to push the Saints all the way to a Super Bowl title this time around.
Rounding out the Top 10 teams on the list starts with the Chicago Bears at +1600. The Cleveland Browns follow them at +1800 as the betting public’s most touted team. The Green Bay Packers (+2000) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (+2200) complete the list.
Super Bowl LIV Futures as posted by MyBookie.ag
- NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +675
- LOS ANGELES RAMS +1400
- KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +525
- NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +1000
- LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +1500
- PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +900
- CLEVELAND BROWNS +1500
- CHICAGO BEARS +1300
- INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +4000
- GREEN BAY PACKERS +1800
- PITTSBURGH STEELERS +1700
- DALLAS COWBOYS +2100
- MINNESOTA VIKINGS +2300
- SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +2500
- ATLANTA FALCONS +3000
- BALTIMORE RAVENS +3000
- HOUSTON TEXANS +3300
- SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +4500
- JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3500
- CAROLINA PANTHERS +2800
- TENNESSEE TITANS +7000
- TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +13000
- OAKLAND RAIDERS +10000
- NEW YORK GIANTS +14000
- DENVER BRONCOS +10000
- NEW YORK JETS +7000
- DETROIT LIONS +12000
- ARIZONA CARDINALS +25000
- WASHINGTON REDSKINS +23000
- BUFFALO BILLS +8500
- CINCINNATI BENGALS +27500
- MIAMI DOLPHINS +40000
