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South Florida Bulls at San Jose State Spartans Odds – Free Week 1 Pick

By David Schwab

The new college football season gets underway this Saturday with a handful of games and one of the featured matchups on CBS Sports Network in a 7:30 p.m. (ET) start at CEFCU Stadium is an AAC/Mountain West clash between the No. 19 South Florida Bulls and the San Jose State Spartans.

South Florida at San Jose State Game Overview

The Bulls ended the 2016 season on a straight-up five-game winning streak including a thrilling 46-39 overtime victory against the SEC’s South Carolina Gamecocks in the Birmingham Bowl as 10.5-point favorites. They went 3-2 against the spread during this run to finish the season with a record of 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS. The total went OVER in 10 of the 13 games.

Heisman hopeful Quinton Flowers is back for his senior year after throwing for 2,812 yards and 24 touchdowns last season while adding another 1,530 yards and 18 scores on the ground. This ultimate duel threat is the main reason why South Florida is currently listed as an odds-on -155 favorite to win the AAC this season. His leading receiver Rodney Adams has moved on to the NFL, but the Bulls remain deep at the wide receiver position with seniors’ Tyre McCants and D’Ernest Johnson leading the way.

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San Jose State finished last season at 4-8 SU with just two wins in its last five games. From a betting standpoint it finished things on a high note by covering in four of its last six contests to post an overall record of 5-6 ATS. The total stayed UNDER the closing line in five of the Spartans’ last seven games. They started the season with a 45-10 loss to Tulsa as four-point road underdogs in their only other matchup against a team from the AAC last year.

The prospect for a quick turnaround this season does not look all that promising from a betting standpoint with San Jose State listed as +6600 longshots to win the Mountain West. Only Fresno State has longer odds at +10000. New head coach Brent Brennan was brought in to try and jumpstart the Spartans’ program following three-straight losing seasons under Ron Caragher. There are some major question marks on both sides of the ball, especially at the quarterback position with Josh Love leading a list of players vying for the starting job.

South Florida San Jose State Game Betting Trends

  • The Bulls have gone 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall, but they are 1-3 ATS in their last four road games. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in seven of their last eight nonconference games.
  • The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in August and they have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three home games. The total has stayed UNDER in three of their last four games played at home.
  • This will be the first meeting between these two teams in recent memory.

South Florida at San Jose State Prediction

This is an obvious mismatch between one of the best teams in the AAC and a bottom feeder in the MWC. There is always a good deal of risk laying over three touchdowns on the road in a college football opener, but the Bulls are on a mission to prove that they are one of the top teams in the nation this season. Look for Flowers to light things up on Saturday night on a very bright prime time stage to help the Bulls cover the huge spread while catching the early eye of Heisman voters.

Free Pick: Take Florida State -21.5
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