You wouldn’t think a game involving two sub-.500 teams would mean much at this point in the NFL season but the 5-6 Buccaneers and 4-8 Saints are still trying to sort out who’s going to win the NFC South. They’ll take that one step further when they meet in Tampa for this week’s edition of Monday night NFL betting action.
Tampa Bay just fell below .500 with an overtime loss last week, while New Orleans just got shut out for the first time in 20 years.
How are we playing Monday night’s game with our free Week 13 MNF pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 13 NFL betting odds opened Tampa Bay as a six-point home favorite for Monday night, with an over/under of right around 42. Early betting action then dropped both the Bucs to -3.5 and the total to 40.5.
Saints-Buccaneers NFL Betting Preview
New Orleans failed to back up its win over the Rams two weeks ago, losing at San Francisco last Sunday 13-0. The Saints fumbled away the first possession of the game into a 49ers field goal and trailed 10-0 into the locker room. New Orleans then had chances to hit the board in the second half, including two drives inside the 49ers’ 10-yard line, but came up totally empty and whiffed ATS as a 9.5-point dog.
New Orleans got out-gained by San Francisco 317-260, managed just 63 yards on the ground (albeit against the best defense in the League), and lost both the turnover battle 2-0 and time of possession by a 35:25 split.
The Saints have now been out-gained and out-rushed by each of their last four opponents. They’re also 1-3 ATS their last four times out.
At 4-8 overall you’d think New Orleans would be dead, as far as making the playoffs is concerned. But in a pathetic NFC South the Saints sit just a game and a half out of first place, with five to play.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, couldn’t extend back-to-back victories into a winning streak, losing at Cleveland in overtime last week 23-17. The Buccaneers fell down to the Browns 7-0 four minutes into the game but battled back to a 10-10 tie into the half. Tampa then scored the first seven points of the second half and led until Cleveland tied it at 17-17 on a fourth-down completion in the last minute. The Bucs then lost it when they punted on their two OT possessions, leading to a game-winning drive for the Browns.
Tampa Bay got out-gained by the Browns 367-325 and out-rushed 189-96.
So the Buccaneers have now been out-gained by three of their last five opponents and out-rushed by nine of their last ten foes. They’re also just 1-7-1 ATS their last nine times out.
And yet, at 5-6 overall, Tampa leads the NFC South by a half-game over second-place Atlanta.
These two teams have played six common opponents so far this season; the Falcons, Seahawks, Panthers, Rams, Ravens, and Steelers. Tampa Bay played those foes to 3-3 SU, 1-4-1 ATS, and +54 yards per game, New Orleans to 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS but -13 YPG.
Saints-Buccaneers Recent History
New Orleans owns the upper hand in this rivalry recently, winning seven of the last nine meetings SU, going 7-2 ATS along the way. The Saints are also 4-2 both SU and ATS vs. Tampa Bay since the Bucs brought in Brady two seasons ago. But Tampa won the first meeting between these teams this season back in September 20-10 at the Superdome.
The Saints actually out-gained the Bucs in that first meeting 308-260 but turned the ball over five times in the second half alone, which basically cost them 20 points.
- Get more details: Saints vs. Bucs Week 13 Betting Stats
NFL Betting Trends
Through Thursday night, home teams are 96-78 SU and 90-82 ATS in the NFL this season.
Through Thursday night, favorites are 110-69 SU and 78-98 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
- The Totals are split 6-6 in Saints games this season, which are averaging 44 total points.
- The Unders are 9-2 in Bucs games this season which are averaging just 37 points.
- Through Thursday night, the Unders are 104-75 in the NFL this season.
