Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers moved to 9-0 last week with a decisive 36-10 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite remaining unbeaten, the win over the Bengals was among the most impressive of Pittsburgh’s performances in the last several weeks. QB Ben Roethlisberger tossed four touchdowns and threw for more than 300 yards for the 2nd straight week. Meanwhile, the Steelers defense wreaked havoc on rookie QB Joe Burrow by racking up four sacks and consistent pressure throughout the game. On Sunday, Pittsburgh’s defense will have another opportunity to pin their ears back and stay aggressive when they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field as double-digit favorites.

QB Gardner Minshew out in week 11

Starting QB Gardner Minshew missed his 2nd straight game last week with a thumb injury. Minshew started throwing balls again this week in practice but will reportedly not be ready in time for Sunday’s matchup against the Steelers. As a result, the Jaguars will put their faith in the hands of backup rookie quarterback Jake Luton. Luton has completed 44 of 73 (60%) passing with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the last two games. As many may be aware, the Jaguars’ offense revolves around a heavy rushing attack with running back James Robinson. In recent weeks, Robinson has been great, averaging over 100 yards per game in each of the last three contests. The Jaguars running game provided numerous scoring opportunities last week, which nearly led to an unlikely upset over the Packers. On Sunday, the Jaguars will likely continue to put focus towards the run game, but the matchup against Pittsburgh’s defense will be significantly more difficult.

Pittsburgh vs. Jacksonville Matchup Breakdown

The problem that Jacksonville will run into on Sunday is that the Steelers have one of the best defensive fronts in football. The Steelers have been stout against the run, yielding just 106 yards per game on the ground. In passing situations, the Steelers defense yielded relentless pressure by racking up the NFL’s most sacks (36) and providing the top pressure stats. As a result, the Jaguars could run into serious concerns with a rookie quarterback at the helm who has not exactly looked great in the last two games. If Pittsburgh has success against the run, which I believe will happen, the Steelers defensive could put the young quarterback in numerous dangerous passing situations.

Obviously, banking on a strong defensive effort is only one element of the equation and not a guarantee by any means. However, I also believe the Steelers offense is starting to find some serious momentum. I mentioned Roethlisberger has passed for 300 yards in two straight games. However, I should also mention that WR Diontae Johnson is emerging as a potential star on offense. Johnson corralled six passes for 116 yards with a touchdown in last week’s victory over the Bengals. It was the 2nd straight week the 2nd year receiver garnered double-digit targets. With Johnson’s emergence, it has really opened opportunities in the passing game for JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool. The Jaguars have been among the worst defenses against the pass this season, allowing 283 yards per game, which ranks 28th in the NFL. Therefore Pittsburgh’s offense, like their defense, is catching Jacksonville at the perfect time to keep their momentum rolling. I am banking that both sides of the football will continue to perform well. As a result, I don’t expect the 10 point spread to be too concerning.

Pittsburgh vs. Jacksonville Betting Trends

• The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in the last five games against AFC opponents.
• The Steelers are 5-13-1 ATS in the last 19 games against Jacksonville.
• The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Jaguars are 0-8 SU in the last eight games.
• The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in the last five games against AFC opponents.
• The total has hit the “under” in five of the last five meetings between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.