The Steelers needed help to just get into the playoffs and they needed some dumb luck this past Saturday to get past Cincinnati 18-16 in the Wild Card Round as two-point road favorites. The bottom line remains that Pittsburgh is still 5-1 straight-up in its last six games with a 3-1-2 record against the spread. The total stayed well UNDER the closing 45.5-point line against the Bengals and it has now stayed UNDER in its last three games.
Pittsburgh may have won the battle on Saturday night, but it could be losing the war against injuries as these playoffs wear on with both quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and his top target Antonio Brown listed as day-to-day for this Sunday’s game. Roethlisberger is nursing a bruised shoulder and Brown is recovering from a concussion. The Steelers’ running game already took a hit with DeAngelo Williams missing the Cincinnati game with a bad ankle and he remains day-to-day as well.
Denver locked-up another division title with back-to-back victories against Cincinnati and San Diego at home to close-out the regular season, but it failed to cover in either game to fall to 0-3-1 ATS in its last four contests. The total went OVER 42 in the 27-20 win against the Chargers as 10-point favorites after staying UNDER in four of the Broncos’ previous six games. They are just 4-7-1 ATS this season in 12 games closing as favorites.
The big story in that come-from-behind victory over San Diego was the return of quarterback Peyton Manning to the lineup after missing quite a bit of playing time with a foot injury. He got some help from a rushing effort that produced 210 yards on the ground in that win and it always helps to have a defense that is ranked first in the league in yards allowed (283.1) and fourth in points allowed (18.5). The Broncos are also the top team in the NFL against the pass and they are ranked third at stopping the run.
The Steelers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in four of their last playoff games on the road.
The Broncos have failed to cover in four of their last five home playoff games, but they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last nine home games.
Head-to-head in this AFC tilt, the underdog has covered in six of the last eight meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in Denver. Pittsburgh beat the Broncos 34-27 in Week 15 as a seven-point home favorite and the total went OVER the 45.5-point closing.
