Two teams skewing in opposite directions at the moment meet when the Bills host the Eagles for an inter-conference match-up Sunday afternoon. Buffalo is off to its best start in a decade, while Philadelphia has lost two games in a row, badly. But the Bills are favored by less than a field goal. Is this game a set-up for a sucker bet? And how are we playing this one for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 8’s NFL betting odds opened Buffalo at -2.5 over Philly, with an over/under of right around 42. Early betting action then dipped that spread to -2 and bumped that total to 43.
Eagles vs. Bills Set-Up
Philadelphia is 3-4 on the season, after getting dumped at Dallas Sunday night 37-10. The Eagles fell behind early 14-0, got within 14-7, but faded from there and never came close to covering the spread as three-point dogs.
On the night Philly got out-gained 402-283, gave up 189 yards on the ground, and lost the turnover battle 4-1, creating a minus-21 points differential.
Two weeks ago, the Eagles fell behind at Minnesota 24-3, got within 24-17, but faded from there and lost 38-20.
Philadelphia needs seven wins over its last nine games to play over its season over/under of 9.5, and that seems a bit far-fetched at the moment.
Buffalo, on the other hand, is 5-1 this season, after beating Miami Sunday 31-21. The Bills led the Dolphins early 6-0, trailed 14-9 into the fourth quarter, but took the lead for good on a John Brown-Josh Allen touchdown connection with 14 minutes left and later iced the game with a kickoff return for a score off an onside kick. However, Buffalo could not cover as a 17-point favorite.
On the day, the Bills got out-gained by Miami 381-305 and lost time of possession by a 34:26 split. But they also won the turnover battle 2-0, basically creating a plus-17 points differential.
Buffalo hasn’t exactly played the toughest schedule in the league this season, with wins over the Jets, Giants, Cincinnati, Tennessee, and the Dolphins. But its only loss so far came against New England 16-10, and the Bills out-gained the Patriots that day by 150 yards.
Buffalo now needs two wins over its last nine games to play over its season over/under of 6.5.
These teams last met back in 2015, a 23-20 Philadelphia victory. But that was quarterbacks and coaches ago for both sides.
NFL Betting Trends
- Philadelphia is 26-21 SU, 23-24 ATS, with Carson Wentz as the starter at QB.
- Philadelphia is 1-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season.
- Buffalo is 10-7 both SU and ATS with Josh Allen as the starter at QB.
- Buffalo is 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS at home this season.
- Home teams are just 46-57 SU, 36-64 ATS so far this NFL betting season.
Totals Report
- Overs are 4-3 in Eagles games this season, which are averaging 51 total points.
- Unders are 5-1 in Bills games this season, which are averaging just 35 points.
- Unders are 56-48 in the NFL this season.
- Get more details: Philadelphia at Buffalo NFL Match-up Stats
