The Broncos are looking to bounce back following a dismal performance last week while the Patriots are playing out the string on a lost season, heading into Sunday night’s Christmas Eve NFL bash at Mile High Stadium.
Denvers still alive in the AFC playoff race, but one more loss might be the end. Can the Broncos not just win Sunday night but cover a short touchdown? Or does New England have an upset performance in it?
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NFL Betting Odds
The Week 16 NFL betting market opened Denver at -5.5 for Sunday night, with an over/under of right around 36.5. Early betting action then bumped the Broncos to -6.5 and dropped that total to 34.5.
Patriots Betting Preview
New England failed to back up its winning performance against Pittsburgh two weeks ago, losing last Sunday at home to Kansas City 27-17. The Patriots, getting 10.5 points, actually led that game 10-7 late into the second quarter. But New England gave up the next 20 points and could not recover.
However, a Patriots gift touchdown midway through the fourth quarter garnered a back-door cover.
New England got out-gained by the Chiefs 326-206.
Two weeks ago, the Patriots won at Pittsburgh 21-18. Before that, New England lost five games in a row, although the last four came by a total of 16 points. And actually, the Patriots have out-gained four of their last five opponents, thanks mainly to their No. 8-ranked defense. If they could just put 21 points on the board on a regular basis, they might be dangerous.
As it is at 3-11 overall, New England may be playing out the last few games of the Belichick era.
Broncos Betting Preview
Meanwhile, Denver just got slapped upside the head last week in Detroit, losing 42-17. The Broncos fell behind 21-0 in the second quarter, played catch-up from there, and whiffed ATS at +5.5.
Denver got out-gained by the Lions 448-287 and gave up 185 yards on the ground.
So even though the Broncos have been winning some games as of late, they have been out-gained by five of their last seven opponents.
Denver seems to be all about turnovers. During their five-game winning streak, the Broncos produced +13 on turnovers; in going 1-2 their last three times out, they are -3.
At 7-7 overall, Denver trails 8-6 Indianapolis by one game – and three other teams – in the battle for that No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff race.
These teams last met three seasons ago, an 18-12 Broncos victory at Foxboro. Drew Lock, now at Seattle, quarterbacked Denver that day against Cam Newton for the Patriots.
On the injury front, New England is banged up on offense everywhere except at QB.
Common Opponents
These teams have played seven common opponents this season: the reciprocal division opponents and Washington. Denver played those foes to 3-5 both SU and ATS and -49 yards per game, New England to 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS and -45 YPG.
NFL Betting Trends
New England is 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS with Bailey Zappe as the starter at QB.
Totals Report
- The Unders are 9-5 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 35 total points.
- The Unders are 8-6 in Broncos games, which are averaging 47 points.
- Through Thursday night, the Unders are 125-100 (56 percent) in the NFL this season.
