One of the inevitable things about the start of the new NFL regular season are all the Week 1 overreactions to just one round of games. When you are only playing 16 games a season, every win or loss has an impact on your overall results, but the general betting public has a bad habit of moving NFL futures odds based on knee-jerk futures bets.
Case in point is the NFL futures odds to win the AFC North Division title. This was already a tight race before the season bot underway with the early results from Week 1 changing the entire betting landscape of this division.
Betting on Past Performance
The Baltimore Ravens returned to form under the guidance of veteran head coach John Harbaugh to win 10 games last season and the North Division title. Moving away from veteran quarterback Joe Flacco for a much more versatile Lamar Jackson proved to be the difference along with a return to playing solid defense.
For their efforts in 2018, the Ravens came into the new season as +325 third-favorites to repeat. Bettors stuck with the tried and true Pittsburgh Steelers or jumped on the Cleveland Browns bandwagon as the sexy breakout pick to win the division this year.
The Ravens made a statement in Sunday’s 59-10 rout over Miami as seven-point road favorites. Granted, the Dolphins have the dubious distinction of being ranked the worse team in the NFL, this was still and impressive win.
Jackson threw for 324 yards and five touchdowns and Baltimore’s defense held the Dolphins to 200 yards of total offense. Unfortunately, this drained quite a bit of value from the Ravens’ updated +150 odds as new favorites to win the AFC North again this year.
I would put Baltimore in the wait and see category. This team is good enough to repeat against the rest of the competition in the division and a loss here or there will probably drive the odds back up higher.
Betting on Expectations
The Cleveland Browns were the most hyped NFL team this offseason, but there is some added room on the bandwagon coming off Sunday’s stunning 43-13 loss to Tennessee as 5.5-point home favorites. Before that game, their odds to win the division were +175 as second-favorites on the list. The loss raised the odds to +200 and dropped the Browns to third on the list.
One overreaction does not justify another. Cleveland may not be as good as everyone anticipated, but it is not as bad as it looked on Sunday.
Pittsburgh went into New England on Sunday night as a +150 favorite to win the AFC North. The Steelers were also not at their best in a 33-3 loss to the Patriots as 5.5-point underdogs. Their NFL futures odds to win the division jumped to +190 to actually add some value to this play.
This is another good example of early knee-jerk reactions to early results. Pittsburgh will still be in the mix when Week 17 rolls around in a division race that should remained steeped in parity.
The fourth team in the AFC North is the Cincinnati Bengals. They opened their schedule as heavy +2000 underdogs to win the title race. Following a tough 21-20 road loss to Seattle as heavy 9.5-point underdogs, the Bengals proved that the gap between them and the rest of the division is not as wide as everyone thought it was. Their adjusted +1400 betting odds proves the point.
All the division head-to-head matchups throughout the season will go a long way towards determining which team actually ends up at the top of the standings.
Odds to Win the AFC North as posted at –> MyBookie.ag.
- PITTSBURGH STEELERS +175
- CLEVELAND BROWNS +180
- BALTIMORE RAVENS +175
- CINCINNATI BENGALS +1800
