Oakland saw their 6-game winning streak end with a 21-13 loss at Kansas City last Thursday. San Diego’s slim playoff hopes ended with a 28-16 loss at Carolina last Sunday. The Raiders recorded a thrilling 34-31 victory over the Chargers in Week 5.
Oakland’s loss was the result of the offense not taking advantage of several opportunities and failing in the red zone (1 TD in 4 trips). QB David Carr had perhaps his worst game as a pro, the result of an injured pinkie finger on his right hand. He will have had 10 days to rest it and should perform much better this week. San Diego allows 261.4 passing ypg and will have their hands full with WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree (combined 144-1,816-11 in 2016). WR Seth Roberts had some drops last week but is 3rd on the team in catches and yardage and 2nd in TDs. TE Clive Walford and RB Latavius Murray both have 29 receptions giving Oakland 5 viable targets in the passing game. Carr has been sacked only 13 times this year and Chargers’ rookie DE Joey Bosa (team leader with 6.5 sacks) is questionable this week due to a concussion. San Diego has only 23 sacks on the year and will be hard-pressed to consistently pressure Carr if Bosa can’t play. Murray ran for 103 yards and a TD last week and is averaging 4.0 ypg this season. The Chargers’ run defense has been strong this year as they allow 92 ypg and 3.7 ypc. Still, they can’t overplay the pass as Murray and rookie RB Jalen Richard have been a potent duo for most of the year.
San Diego’s offense has been torpedoed by a league-high 30 TOs. QB Philip Rivers has tossed 17 interceptions and lost 5 of 8 fumbles. He committed 5 TOs last week and was sacked 5 times as well (33 on the year). Because of injuries, WRs Dontrelle Inman and Tyrell Williams have become the top two targets and have had decent seasons. Rivers threw for 359 yards and 4 TDs in the first meeting and the Raiders have to be ready to see 40+ passes in this contest. Their pass defense has certainly improved as the season has gone along but they still give up 264.3 passing ypg. Their pass rush has greatly improved in the 2nd half of the year as DE Khalil Mack has 10 of his 11 sacks in the past 8 games. He has also notched a strip-sack in 3-straight games. I expect the Chargers o-line to have trouble with him and OLB Bruce Irvin on passing downs. As well as losing Bosa last week, SD also lost RB Melvin Gordon early last Sunday to a hip injury. He is also questionable this Sunday. Rookie RB Kenneth Farrow would get the lion’s share of carries if Gordon can’t go but is averaging only 3.5 ypc for the season. Oakland has been susceptible on the ground (4.7 ypc) but they will expect the Chargers game plan to be focused on attacking their pass defense.
Public Money Consensus
In this NFL matchup between Oakland and San Diego have the public leaning heavily to the Raiders to cover the 3 point spread at 80%. On the over/under side the public bettors are definitively siding with this game going over the 49.5 point spread by over 80%.
