It’s a rematch of a crazy game of just a few weeks when the 13-4 Vikings host the 9-7-1 Giants for an NFC wild-card playoff bout Sunday afternoon indoors in Minneapolis. Minnesota rode a run of tight victories this season, including one over this New York team, to a divisional championship. The Giants, meanwhile, leveraged a hot start into a wild-card berth.
The Vikings beat New York by a field goal at the buzzer three weeks ago, and they’re favored by three points for this game.
Which way are we going here with our free NFL wild-card betting pick?
NFL Wild-Card Betting Lines
The NFL wild-card betting odds opened Minnesota as a three-point home favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 47.5. Early betting action then bumped that total to 48.5.
According to Sagarin’s NFL ratings at USAToday.com, the Vikings should be favored by three and a half points for this match-up.
Giants NFL Wildcard Betting Preview
New York, in its first season under yet another new head coach, started 6-1, with wins over Baltimore and Jacksonville, the only loss a tough one to Dallas. The Giants then stumbled through a 2-5-1 stretch, as injuries took a toll, with a bad loss to Philadelphia and a close loss to this Minnesota team. But a Week 17 victory over Indianapolis clinched a wild-card berth for New York.
The Giants then lost their meaningless season finale last week at Philadelphia 22-16, resting many starters, including QB Jones and RB Barkley.
So New York is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and for the first time with young QB Jones.
On the season, the Giants only out-gained six of their 17 opponents and only out-rushed seven of their 17 foes. But they also only turned the ball over 16 times, the second-fewest in the League.
Vikings NFL Wildcard Betting Preview
The Vikings, meanwhile, also in their first season under a new HC, started 1-1, then won seven in a row, including victories at Miami and at Buffalo. Minnesota then lost badly at home to Dallas but won four of its next five, including a crazy one over these Giants, to clinch its first NFC North title since 2017. The Vikes then lost a basically meaningless game at Green Bay, then finished the regular season last week with a 29-13 win at Chicago.
So Minnesota is back in the playoffs for the fourth time over the last eight seasons and for the second time with QB Cousins.
The Vikings lived dangerously this season, winning 11 games by one score or less, five by exactly three points, two in overtime, and eight after trailing in the fourth quarter! We can’t help but wonder how much longer luck like that can last.
On the season, Minnesota out-gained only eight of its 17 opponents and out-rushed only seven of 17 foes.
These two teams just met three weeks ago also in Minneapolis, a 27-24 Vikings victory. Minnesota scored the first 10 points of that game, but New York battled back to lead 13-10 into the fourth quarter. Finally, after some back-and-forth scoring created a 24-24 tie, the Vikings won it on a 61-yard field goal as time ran out.
However, the Giants covered the spread as four-point dogs.
Also, that game played over a total of 48 thanks to 28 fourth-quarter points.
New York out-gained Minnesota that day 445-353 and out-rushed the Vikings 126-83 but lost the turnover battle 2-0, resulting in about a six-point differential.
Common Opponents
These two teams played seven common opponents this season; the Cowboys, Eagles, Washington, Bears, Lions, Packers, and Colts. The Giants played those foes to 4-5-1 SU but 7-3 ATS and -27 yards per game, Minnesota to 6-4 SU, only 2-7-1 ATS but +20 YPG.
- Get more details: NY Giants at Minnesota Vikings Wildcard Betting Stats
NFL Wild Card Betting Trends
- Over the last five NFL wild-card rounds, the home teams are just 11-13 SU, 8-16 ATS.
- Over the last five NFL wild-card rounds, the favorites are 13-11 SU, just 8-16 ATS.
- The Giants played 2-6 SU but 5-3 ATS this season against teams that made the playoffs.
- The Vikings played 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS against playoff qualifiers.
Totals Report
- The Unders played 9-6-2 in Giants games this season, which averaged 43 total points.
- The Overs are 11-6 in Vikings games this season, which averaged 50 points.
- The Unders are 16-8 over the last five NFL wild-card rounds.
