Johnathan Taylor Indianapolis Colts

NFL Week 6 Pick Indianapolis at Jacksonville Spread Prediction

By Statinator
Date: 15/10/2023 1:00 pm
Location: EverBank Field
TV: Fox

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Jacksonville -4.5
Moneyline: Jac -210/Indy +170
Total: 44

Both teams come into the game with a 3-2 record, but they’ve gotten there in different ways. Let’s dive into the stats to see who has the edge in various categories.

Power Stats Analysis

Yards Per Point

  • Indianapolis Offense: 14.32
  • Indianapolis Defense: 16.61
  • Jacksonville Offense: 17.06
  • Jacksonville Defense: 16.86

Edge: Indianapolis Indianapolis is more efficient in converting yards to points on offense, and their defense makes opponents work harder for each point compared to Jacksonville.

Yards Per Pass

  • Indianapolis Offense: 9.93
  • Indianapolis Defense: 10.43
  • Jacksonville Offense: 9.64
  • Jacksonville Defense: 11.03

Edge: Indianapolis Both teams allow a lot of yards per pass defensively, but Indianapolis has a slight edge offensively.

Yards Per Rush

  • Indianapolis Offense: 4.4
  • Indianapolis Defense: 3.82
  • Jacksonville Offense: 3.92
  • Jacksonville Defense: 3.71

Edge: Indianapolis Indy has a better yards-per-rush average both offensively and defensively, signaling a stronger run game and run defense.

Turnover Differential

  • Indianapolis: -0.6
  • Jacksonville: -0.8

Edge: Indianapolis Both teams have negative turnover differentials, but Indianapolis is slightly better.

Betting Odds Trends

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville’s last 10 games.

Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games. The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis’s last 11 games. Edge: Jacksonville Jacksonville has a better track record in covering the spread and keeping the game total under.

Head-to-Head

Jacksonville has dominated recent matchups, going 6-4 overall and 8-2 ATS. Edge: Jacksonville Jacksonville has had the upper hand in recent matchups, particularly at home.

Colts vs Jags Free Pick ATS

According to the stats and trends, Indianapolis has the edge in yards per point, yards per pass, and yards per rush, while Jacksonville has the edge in recent form and head-to-head matchups. The game could go either way, but Indianapolis appears to have a slight statistical advantage.

Free Pick: Take the Colts +4
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