I’m having a tough time making picks against the spread for Week 15 for a variety of reasons including line value and motivation. So, this week’s NFL picks include three total plays and one selection versus the point spread. In Week 14 we got the money in overtime on the Over 50 total play on the Ravens/Chiefs and we once again needed extended time to cash the Cowboys -3 play. The lone loss came on the Atlanta at Green Bay game where the Falcons and Matt Ryan didn’t have their best game in a flattering 34-20 defeat.
Week 2: 3-1, Week 3: 2-1, Week 4: 2-1, Week 5: 2-1, Week 6: 1-3, Week 7: 0-3, Week 8: 2-0, Week 9: 2-1, Week 10: 1-1, Week 11: 2-2, Week 12: 4-1, Week 13: 1-2, Week 14: 2-1.
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Falcons -9.5
Total: 44
The Cardinals have three wins on the season and while two them came on the road one was against a banged-up 49ers club with C.J. Beathard behind center and the other versus a Packers club who appear to have laid down to get head coach Mike McCarthy fired. Arizona’s offensive line is a mess with backups forming a patchwork line and while RB David Johnson is likely to play today, he’s dealing with a quad injury and may be vulnerable to reinjury.
The Falcons have lost five straight games after a three-game winning streak put them back in play for a playoff spot. Atlanta’s offensive output has been minimal throughout the losing streak scoring 20 or fewer points in all five and may find the going tough again this week. The Cards defensive shortcomings are in run defense and on paper that’s not something that the Falcons 32nd ranked ground game (yards per game) is likely to exploit.
Tennessee Titans at NY Giants
Spread: Titans -1
Total: 43
The Titans are just 2-4 on the road this season, but did lose by one to the Bills and the Chargers, so with a few breaks could easily be 4-2. The strength of Tennessee is their defense led by their pass defense that has held all but one team to less than 300 yards. Their run defense has also been above average holding five opponents under 100 yards rushing and seven of their last nine opponents to an average of 3.6 yards or less per carry.
The Giants have won four of their last five games but faced back-up QBs in three of the wins. Their defense sets up perfectly for the Titans allowing the opposition QBs a 65% completion rate and a 22nd ranked 121.8 yards per game on the ground. Marcus Mariota doesn’t throw for huge yardage totals but completes a ridiculously high percentage with many play action throws set up by the running game. Offensively New York has been improving but will be without their top yardage receiver Odell Beckham and while they still have the brilliant rookie Saquon Barkley who leads the team in catches with 78, they will be facing the No. 1 team vs. RBs in the passing game.
