A high-stakes AFC North matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens is set for November 7, 2024, at M&T Bank Stadium. Here’s why we believe the over on 52.5 points is a strong pick for this game.
Preview
In a key AFC North clash, the Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) head to Baltimore to face the Ravens (6-3) in a game with playoff implications. This matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring affair, with both teams boasting explosive offenses and notable defensive vulnerabilities. The game total is set at 52.5 points, and we’ll explore why taking the over might be the best option here.
Key Reasons to Back the Over
- High-Scoring Recent Games: Cincinnati has gone over the total in 6 of their last 9 games, including a 41-24 win over the Raiders and a 38-41 thriller against the Ravens. Baltimore also trends toward the over, with 8 of their 9 games hitting the over this season.
- Baltimore’s Weak Pass Defense: The Ravens rank last in the league for pass yards allowed (280.9 per game), creating opportunities for Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s passing offense. With Baltimore’s defensive struggles, Cincinnati’s potent passing attack could excel.
- Strong Offensive Performances: Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ passing game are firing on all cylinders, with Burrow averaging 253.2 yards per game and completing 70.2% of passes. Baltimore’s offense is similarly potent, ranking 7th in points per game (26.2), and is particularly strong in the third quarter (8.3 points per game).
- Fourth-Quarter Scoring: Baltimore has struggled in the fourth quarter defensively, allowing 10.3 points per game, the worst in the league. This weakness, combined with Cincinnati’s late-game offensive potential, could lead to a high-scoring finish.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5, 3rd AFC North)
The Bengals enter this game needing a win to stay competitive in the AFC North. Led by Joe Burrow, Cincinnati’s offense has been explosive, especially in the passing game. Burrow has thrown for 13 touchdowns with only three interceptions and is coming off a five-touchdown performance against Las Vegas. In their last meeting with Baltimore, the Bengals scored 38 points, with Burrow throwing for 392 yards.
Defensively, Cincinnati is stronger against the pass, ranking 15th in pass yards allowed per game (236.3). However, their defense has shown vulnerabilities in high-scoring games, which Baltimore’s offense could exploit.
Baltimore Ravens (6-3, 2nd AFC North)
Baltimore is having a strong season offensively, averaging 26.2 points per game, led by a balanced attack. The Ravens’ ability to score has been consistent, especially in the third quarter, where they rank 4th in the league in points scored. With an effective ground game and explosive passing options, they are well-equipped to challenge Cincinnati’s defense.
Defensively, however, Baltimore has major weaknesses in their secondary, ranking last in passing yards allowed. This vulnerability, combined with a poor fourth-quarter defense (10.3 points allowed), leaves them susceptible to Cincinnati’s passing attack and late-game scoring surges.
Key Matchup Stats
- Cincinnati Passing Offense vs. Baltimore Pass Defense: The Bengals’ passing offense, ranked 7th in the league with 236.3 yards per game, faces Baltimore’s league-worst pass defense, allowing 280.9 yards per game. This matchup heavily favors Cincinnati’s aerial attack.
- Third and Fourth Quarter Performance: Baltimore ranks 4th in third-quarter scoring, while Cincinnati has one of the worst fourth-quarter defenses, allowing 10.3 points on average. Expect points to pile up in the second half.
Betting Trends
- Against the Spread (ATS): Cincinnati is 5-4 ATS this season, with a strong 3-1 ATS record on the road. Baltimore is 5-3-1 ATS and has performed well at home.
- Over/Under: Cincinnati games have hit the over in 6 of their last 9, while Baltimore’s games have gone over in 8 of 9 matchups. The trend favors a high-scoring game.
