In Week 9 we got the best of it going 2-1 against the spread losing the Redskins game where some early offensive line injuries made it impossible to keep up with the Falcons. On to our NFL predictions for Week 10.
Week 2: 3-1, Week 3: 2-1, Week 4: 2-1, Week 5: 2-1, Week 6: 1-3, Week 7: 0-3, Week 8: 2-0. Week 9: 2-1.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Point Spread: Lions +7 / Bears -7
O/U Line: 51
The Detroit Lions looked horrendous last week against the Vikings allowing more sacks (10) than points scored (9). Their 23 sacks allowed on the season puts them in the middle of the pack, but they’ve faced four of the bottom third teams in sacks this season which undoubtedly skews the metric. The Lions RG TJ Lang is now out after hurting his neck in Week 9, and there isn’t much to step in behind him.
Detroit’s recipe for success is running the ball and when they have run for over 100 yards which they have done twice this season against New England and Miami they have gotten the “W”. Their only other victory this season came against NFC North rival Green Bay who out-yarded them 521- 264 but went 1 for 5 in field goal attempts in the Lions 31-23 victory.
The Chicago Bears didn’t do much on the offensive side last week, but they didn’t need to, capitalizing on Bills mistakes in the first half to take a 28-0 lead and then coast in the second. Their defense was strong again forcing four sack and allowing fewer than 300 total yards for the second straight game and for the fourth time this season. The run defense was once again a standout holding their opponent to fewer than 100 yards a feat that they have done in all but two games this season.
The Chicago ground game has had some ups and downs but checks in after Week 9 with the seventh-ranked unit based on yards per game (128.4 YRPG). They should have lots of opportunities against the Detroit stop unit that holds the 31st ranking in yards per rush and 30th in yards per game. The Lions will also be without their top corner and interception leader Darius Slay which is a huge loss for their secondary.
Lions at Bears Prediction Week 10
Look I’m not fond of laying a full TD against a divisional opponent and especially when that team is the Bears who have lost 10 consecutive games straight up versus the NFC North. However, they do hold advantages in most metrics. Highly disruptive OLB Kahil Mack returns after a two-game absence, and I don’t see any way that the Lions offense succeeds today. As mentioned the loss of CB Darius Clay is enormous for the Lions. Chicago gets back one of their top receivers in Allen Robinson for the game giving them a handful of options in the passing game.
Other NFL games I’m betting in Week 10
Spread: ATL -5.5 / CLE +5.5
Total: 50
The Falcons have won three straight, and their scoring defense has looked better the last two allowing 20 to the Giants and 14 to the Redskins. That said, the NYG scored greater than their season average of 18.8 points while Wash kept dropping offensive lineman during the game and finished the game with four starters missing from the OL were not even a touchdown off of their season average. The Browns could only put up 21 against the sub-par Chiefs unit last week, but that was the first game with a new HC and OC and improvement would seem likely this week.
The Cleveland defense is another story all together allowing 33 or higher points in three of their last four with the exception being the game against Tamp Bay. The Bucs finished minus three on the day in turnover ratio, or they certainly would have been able to surpass their 26 point total on 456 total yards of offense. Atlanta has scored 30 or more points in five of their last seven contests and should have no problem putting up the points today against this secondary.
