NFL Handicapping Records (After Regular Season)
Rich Crew 35-19-1 +13.20 Units
David Schwab’s Best Bets* 18-11-1 +5.90 Units
Jeff Scott 20-29-2 -11.90 Units
*Note: Schwab provides opinions on games that we request as well as his top plays of the week. For record keeping purposes we use only his best bets which are games that he has chosen as his top games on the weekly card.
I’m taking a simplified approach to this game. To win Super Bowl 49 Seattle will need to have success running the ball and New England will need a top notch game from “All World” TE Rob Gronkowski.
The Patriots have shown throughout this campaign that they can be run on. On the season they have played seven games against opponents ranked in the top 10 in the league for rushing yards per carry. Those were against Miami 2, Kansas City, NY Jets 2, Green Bay and Baltimore. This will be the first time this season that New England has faced Seattle so I’m going to eliminate the rubber match games that they played versus the Jets and the Dolphins. In the five games that fit the profile the Pats allowed their opponent to exceed their seasonal yards per carry average in every game! The five teams averaged a ridiculous 5.0 yards per carry and amassed 176.8 yards per game on the ground. The Seahawks ranked number 1 in the NFL in rushing with a 5.2 YPC and 170 yards per game average and based on New England’s performance this season against strong rushing attacks there is nothing to suggest that they will stop the Seahawks in the big game.
There is no doubting New England’s TE Rob Gronkowski’s talent and after QB Brady he is by far the number one player on their offense that has to be accounted for. Statistically if a team holds him to fewer than 50 yards which happened on 6 occasions (including Week 17 that he didn’t play) this year you have a great shot to win based on the Patriots’ record of 3-3 straight up. I believe the numbers show that Seattle’s defense has a decent shot at doing just that. Using statistics compiled by footballoutsiders.com (yards allowed + PI yards) the Seahawks rank 4th in the league defensively against tight ends this season allowing just 41.4 yards per game. I know that Gronk can be considered in a class of his own, but the Seahawks have faced some of the top TE’s in the league in Carolina’s Greg Olson twice, San Diego’s Antonio Gates, Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and Dallas’ Jason Whitten which improves the projected accuracy of the number.
The boys from Boston lost 4 games this season. In 3 of the losses (Mia, KC and GB) they allowed their opponent to rush for over their seasonal YPC average with only Buffalo in the meaningless Week 17 game who didn’t. Also, in 3 of the losses Gronkowski didn’t have 50 or greater receiving yards (Mia, KC and Buff).
