Betting the NFL over/under is the most simple of wagers: If the combined score is more than the listed number, the game plays ‘over’ the total, and if the combined score is less than the posted over/under, the game plays ‘under’.
Thing is, handicapping and wagering the over/under is anything but easy. There is tons of value to be had betting the over/under, but you have to know how to play your cards.
Plenty of factors go in to wagering the NFL over/under. Trends, home/away and grass/turf splits, offensive and defensive rankings, and weather conditions all play into whether the game is likely to hit the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ for a given game.
A quick word about inclement weather: Square bettors tend to believe that bad weather, including rain and wind, leads to the ‘under’. Not always. Remember, defensive players have just as much trouble with the weather as the guys on the offensive side of the ball.
A general rule of thumb for betting the over/under is to bet the ‘over’ early in the week and the ‘under’ towards the end of the week. The total tends to rise throughout the week because of the behavior of public bettors.
Public bettors love the ‘over’, and the number rises accordingly. After all, casual bettors like a high scoring game and they place their bets with that in mind. That’s why it makes sense to grab the ‘over’ as early as possible, and vice-versa if you’re leaning towards the ‘under’.
That being a solid strategy, don’t blindly bet the ‘over’ early and the ‘under’ late in the week. Keep an eye on line movement because injuries, sharp betting behavior, and even the weather forecast can affect movement for the ‘over/under’. Do your due diligence in addition to following this key tip before laying down your money on the total.
There are a ton of bad angles and dumb strategies that can tank your NFL bankroll. Make sure to stay on the right track with smart tips and sharp information.
