One of the most heavily bet NFL player props heading into a new season of football is for most valuable player honors based on play in the regular season. Bookmaker has recently updated its betting odds for this prop heading into the start of this year’s preseason games.
A quarterback has won most valuable player honors in the NFL for the past four seasons and going back to the 2007 season, a player in this position has claimed the MVP award in nine of the last 10 years. Bookmaker has set its NFL futures odds for this year’s MVP award and the trick is to find the best value in the numbers.
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Top Favorite Pick for the NFL MVP
When you are the long-time starting quarterback for one of the most successful franchises in NFL history coming off a Super Bowl victory, it is easy to see why you would have the best odds on the board to win MVP this season. New England’s Tom Brady has been listed as a +350 favorite to win his third-career MVP award in 2017. Everyone knows that Patriots are going to win their fair share of games and with Brady leading the offense, he is bound to put up some big numbers along the way. The problem is that voters for this award already expect this, so Brady is going to have to do something extra special to sway their votes his way.
The bar is already way too high for both the Patriots and Brady in 2017, which in turn, drains much of the value out of his MVP betting odds.
Top Contenders for the NFL MVP
The second-favorite on the list to win MVP is Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers at +777 betting odds. He won his first MVP award back in 2011 when he helped lead the Packers to a 15-1 record in the regular season. This was fresh off their Super Bowl title run the year before. Somewhat like Brady, the expectation level for Rodgers is already sky high, but there is still some value in his odds given Green Bay’s rather pedestrian 10-6 records the past two seasons. If Rodgers can lead Green Bay to 13 or 14 wins this season, he is bound to catch the MVP voters’ attention.
The odds really start to drop off from there with a trio of quarterbacks that include Seattle’s Russell Wilson, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan and Dak Prescott in his second season at Dallas. The Seahawks’ fate this season still hinges on the play of its defense. Ryan won MVP last season and only Peyton Manning has won back-to-back trophies (2008/2009) since Brett Favre’s playing days in the mid-90’s. The pressure is already dialed way up on Prescott following a stellar rookie campaign, so the risk/reward for this bet is rather high given what we have seen from other successful quarterbacks in their sophomore season.
Top Longshot Pick For The NFL MVP
There is a grocery list of longshots to take a flyer on this year such as running backs’ Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson at +2511 and there could be some value in Andrew Luck at +2208 assuming he can come back 100 percent from shoulder surgery. I like Oakland quarterback Derek Carr at +1504; however if I was going to try and really stretch the odds for league MVP this season, I would go with Eli Manning at +6000.
This guy has already led the New York Giants two to a pair of Super Bowl victories over the course of his 13-year NFL career and, coming into the 2017 season, he could have one of the most talented teams surrounding him in recent years. New York won between six and nine games each year from the last Super Bowl run in 2011 until it upped the ante with an 11-5 record last season. A major improvement on defense led the way and Manning turned in one of his most productive performances in recent memory.
He still has the pedigree of football royalty and with the clock ticking on what could be a ‘Hall of Fame’ career, a MVP-caliber season would undoubtedly push him over the top.
