That’s right. We’re going to give out weekly NFL money line picks. The NFL money line is often overlooked by handicappers based on the high lines that you have to lay on the favored team. Rookie bettors have blown out their bankrolls backing the -300 “can’t lose” favorite. Our approach, for the most part, is the polar opposite, backing mostly dogs, and in rare situations, we’ll give out a pick on a small favorite.
Here’s some math to consider. A -3 point spread favorite will correlate to a -155 favorite on the money line, depending on the sportsbook. The underdog at +3 would be a +135 favorite on the money line. A bettor taking the favorite in this scenario over a 100-game span with a winning percentage of 60% would be down two units over the sample size based on a uniform wager. A bettor who did the opposite, winning 45% of his ML underdog wagers over a 100-game span, would be up 0.75 Units.
Our prognosticators have many seasons under their belt and while every week won’t show a profit, rest assured that this team will be giving it their all. We’ll have good and bad weeks throughout the NFL season, but it would be in your best interest to play our predictions throughout the season because, in the end, we expect the returns to be profitable.
2023 Picks Record: 10-24-0 Units: -10.16
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Week 18
ML Parlay SF -210 and LV Raiders -170: Pays +136
Week 17
Raiders +158 (Lost) and Chargers +148 (Lost)
Week 16
Passed
Week 15
We’re going with Panthers again +130 W, Jets +328 L, Giants +142 L, Seahawks +140 W
Week 14
Sure, the record is atrocious, but this is just one of the years where we have lost a ton of close games, and many of them late.
This week, we’re going with the Bears +145 W, Panthers +200 L, and Jets +150 L. We may add more later.
Week 13
We’re going with the Pats +190 L, Jets +122 L, Titans +110 L, Broncos +150 L, Packers +190 W
Week 12
We’re double dipping and taking the Panthers +150 L, Browns +105 L, Buffalo +135 L, and Chicago +121 W.
Week 11
Bears +320 (Lost late)
Chicago gets their starting QB back and their top RB back and could win this outright.
Week 10
Jax +146 (Lost)
The 49ers have lost three straight and while we think that they may bounce back, getting +146 on a team at home on a five-game win streak is a nice value play.
Chargers +130 (Lost)
The Chargers have won four of their last six games with the two losses coming against the Cowboys and the Chiefs. Definitely worth a shot against a Lions team that besides beating KC in their season opener hasn’t beaten much.
Week 9
Tampa Bay +130 (Lost)
The four losses by the Bucs have come against the Eagles, Lions, Bills, and Falcons, who are a combined 22-10. The Texans are without their top RB, Damion Pierce, and its most experienced WR, Robert Woods.
Week 8
Pitt +110 (Lost)
The Steelers possess a big-play defense and are healthy on offense and at home.
Week 7
Denver +100 (Won)
The Denver defense looked a lot better the last two weeks as they get healthier. The Packers haven’t scored more than 20 in three consecutive games and have tallied over 300 yards of offense in just two of their five games, with the highest being 340 yards.
Week 6
Seattle +140 (Lost)
The Seahawks are a little banged up on the offensive line, but their defense may cause Joe Burrow fits.
Indianpolis +175 (Lost)
This is a good bounce spot for the Jags after a nice winning trip across the ocean. The Colts are better with Minshew behind center.
Week 5
Cardinals +150 (Lost)
The Joe Burrow injury has resulted in the Bengals being statistically the holder of the worst offense in the league. I expect their numbers to go up against the Cardinals’ defensive unit, but can they keep pace with the host? We’re betting against it.
Week 4
Titans +134 (Won)
I’m going right back to the Titans at home against a Bengals club that can’t run the ball and has one of the least vertical passing offenses this season.
Chicago Bears +142 (Lost in OT)
We’re a little scared of their lack of pass defense, but the Bears should be able to get their running game going, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to get their first win over the season.
Week 3
Titans +160 (Lost)
Fading the Browns without RB Chubb isn’t the worst play that you could make. That said, the Cleveland defense is strength and may be able to keep them in the game. We’re counting on a lot of three and outs for the team and hope that the defense gets tired.
Carolina +190 (Lost)
The Seahawks’ defense is really beat up in the secondary and can be had. Even Old Rusty (Andy Dalton) manning the ship this week should be able to find open receivers.
Week 2
We’re going with the Titans +125 W, and the Patriots +130 L as our Week 2 money line plays.
Week 1
Las Vegas Raiders +150
Until Russell Wilson can prove that he can still quarterback, I’ll fade him.
