There is no question that the prestige of the running back position has taken some hits in recent years. With the league becoming more aerially-inclined lately, the value in a top back has ebbed. Years ago, looking at the draft meant looking at any number of running backs that would become stars. Now—it’s not the same.
Still, as we continue to see, a good running back and a strong overall ground-game is still a top feature in the more successful offenses we see around the league. Balance is still key, and even if the league has become more of an air-show of late, we’ve seen teams go very far recently on the strength of a strong run-game. Let’s take a look at some running back draft props we like this year:
(Odds Courtesy Of Bovada)
- Swift/Taylor/Dobbins first RB drafted -3750
- Any other running back drafted first +1500
Pick and Analysis: Let’s get the deep chalk out of the way. You can’t pass up even a 3% return on your money when it’s this easy. Barring a team coming from way out in left field with an extreme reach for someone like Cam Akers or Clyde Edwards-Helaire, this is a lock. While the running back crop isn’t getting a lot of publicity this year, the top three of D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, and JK Dobbins is pretty clear-cut.
Jonathan Taylor
- J.Taylor drafted in first round +175
- J.Taylor not drafted in first round -245
Pick and Analysis: Not drafted in the first round. Not only are teams no longer in the custom of drafting backs this high, but how many big-stat Wisconsin backs haven’t ended up being NFL stars worthy of a first-round stab? The amount of teams in the latter half of the first round that need a running back is few, and the ones that do need a back would seem more likely to go with D’Andre Swift.
D’Andre Swift
- D.Swift drafted in first round -125
- D.Swift not drafted in first round -115
Pick and Analysis: Very tough call. I think there may be a few teams no one is expecting who could possibly go with Swift in the second half of the first round, like the Eagles, Raiders, or maybe KC. I see second-round teams having a greater need and that he’ll slip through the first round.
D’Andre Swift
- D.Swift first running back drafted -180
- Any other running back drafted first +150
Pick and Analysis: First back drafted. A team that reaches in the first round could conceivably take Taylor. Still, the teams that need a running back earliest seem more inclined to go with the Georgia star. Teams are less likely to roll the dice on prospective backs these days and even the teams that would do that seem to be a better fit with Swift.
Jonathan Taylor
- J.Taylor first running back drafted +200
- Any other running back drafted first -260
Pick and Analysis: I could see someone looking at this as a decent underdog pick to be the first back drafted. That’s not an entirely baseless premise in a field of backs where no one is a clear consensus choice. When there is a good chance that the first back won’t even go until the second round, the picture becomes murkier than it does at other positions, where guys are getting picked high in the first round. Once you get into this territory, it’s anyone’s guess.
J.K. Dobbins
- J.K. Dobbins first running back drafted +1100
- Any other running back drafted first -2000
Pick and Analysis: Any other back. While picks at this position could be happening so late that something like this could make sense, I wouldn’t get this crazy. Swift and Taylor are much more the prototypical back teams would look for this early in a draft, with the slighter Dobbins more of a speed merchant and not big or robust enough to be an every-down guy. A team could step out of line based on his talent, but the notion of him passing both Taylor and Swift seems downright goofy.
This article completes our six pack look at the top NFL Draft Pick props. Don’t forget to visit and bookmark our NFL Football Picks Page to get our top plays throughout the football season including beast bets from 60% handicapper Rich Crew!
