Making the right selections in the NFL draft is still the most effective way to build a team that can win on a consistent basis. When you add a player that can make an immediate impact on a team’s fortunes in his rookie season, that becomes a major plus.
MyBookie has recently updated its NFL prop bet odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year heading into the start of the preseason schedule. My job is to find the best value in these current odds when it comes to cashing in a winning ticket.
NFL 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year Top Favorite
Former Oklahoma quarterback and 2017 Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield was the first overall pick in this year’s draft, but most of the buzz heading into the 2018 regular season has revolved around former Penn State running back Saquon Barkley. He could not have picked a better place to start his NFL career than the New York Giants as the second overall pick. This high-profile franchise needs a massive shot in the arm after going from 11-5 in 2016 to just three wins last year.
Under the guidance of new head coach Pat Shurmur, Barkley will be tasked with turning around a New York ground game that was ranked 26th in the NFL last season with an average of 96.8 yards per game. The simple fact that he will have plenty of opportunities to showcase his skills at the next level adds some tremendous value to his +200 odds as the favorite to win ROY honors on offense.
NFL 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year Top Contenders
Mayfield should get a chance to start in Cleveland sometime this season, but when you are playing quarterback for a team that has just one regular-season win over the past two seasons, it could be tough to make an impact in your rookie year. This tends to drain most of the value from his +1200 betting odds to win ROY.
A pair of rookie quarterbacks looking to make an immediate impact at lower odds would be the New York Jets’ San Darnold at +550 and Josh Rosen at +1000 as the new signal caller for the Arizona Cardinals.
I would stay away from all three of these players given the rather large rebuilding process each of their team faces in 2018. My top contender for ROY at +1000 would be running back Derrius Guice as the Washington Redskins top pick in the second round of the draft. He has already made a positive impression in training camp as the answer to a rushing attack that fell to 28th in the league in 2017 with an average of just 90.5 yards per game. Veteran quarterback Alex Smith is going to need some solid run support to have the opportunity to move the ball down the field through the air.
NFL 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year Top Longshot
There is always some solid value to be found in rookies with longer odds to win this award. Alvin Kamara came out of nowhere last season as a third-round pick in New Orleans to win ROY after racking-up over 1,500 yards running and catching the ball.
Some of the more interesting choices on this year’s list include Cleveland running back Nick Chubb at +2200 and Carolina wide receiver DJ Moore at +2500 betting odds. I am going a bit deeper on the list for my top longshot with Calvin Ridley as the newest member of the Atlanta Falcons’ receiving corps. The former Alabama wide receiver’s odds to win ROY are set at +3000.
The downside to these odds is that he will be competing with Julio Jones for targets. The plus side is he will have veteran quarterback Matt Ryan throwing him the ball on an offense that is predicated on moving the ball downfield through the air.
