The two best teams in the NFC fittingly meet for the conference championship when the Eagles host the 49ers Sunday afternoon at the Linc. Philadelphia’s been the best team in the NFC basically all season long and opened its playoff run by pounding the Giants in a divisional-round game last week. San Francisco, meanwhile, lost two starting quarterbacks this season but owns a 12-game winning streak, going 7-0 with its rookie third-stringer!
Philadelphia’s a home favorite for Sunday but by less than a field goal. Which way are we going here with our free NFC championship game betting pick?
NFC Championship Betting Line
The NFL playoffs betting odds opened Philadelphia as a two-point favorite for this NFC championship game, with an over/under of right around 45.5. Early betting action then edged the Eagles to -2.5.
According to Sagarin’s NFL ratings at USAToday.com, Philly should actually be lined as a half-point underdog for this match-up.
NFC Championship Game Betting Preview
San Francisco reached this NFC championship bout by beating Dallas in a divisional-round game last Sunday 19-12. The 49ers trailed the Cowboys 3-0 early but led 9-6 at the half. San Francisco then allowed Dallas to tie it at 9-9 in the third quarter but took the lead for good on a McCaffrey touchdown early in the fourth and held on from there for the victory and the cover at -3.5.
The Niners out-gained the Cowboys 312-282, out-rushed Dallas 113-76, led time of possession by a 33:27 split, and won the turnover battle 2-1, creating a +6 points differential.
San Francisco opened its playoff run with a 41-23 wild-card victory over Seattle. The 49ers out-gained the Seahawks 505-332, out-rushed Seattle 181-104, led TOP by a 33:27 split, and won the turnover battle 2-0.
The Niners are now 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS, with rookie Brock Purdy starting at QB.
Philadelphia reached this NFC title tilt by disposing of the Giants in a divisional-round game last Saturday 38-7. The Eagles, favored by eight points, drove four of their first five possessions of the game to touchdowns and led 28-0 at the half. Philly allowed New York a mercy score in the third quarter, then pulled away from there for the win and some easy money.
The Eagles out-gained the Giants 416-227, piled up 268 yards on the ground, dominated time of possession 36:24, and recorded five sacks.
Philadelphia didn’t have to play on wild-card weekend because it went 14-3 during the regular season, 14-1 with Jalen Hurts as the starter at QB, to earn a bye.
These two teams met most recently back in September of last season, in a 17-11 San Francisco victory in Philly. Jimmy Garoppolo quarterbacked the 49ers that day against Hurts for the Eagles.
Common Opponents
These two teams have played five common opponents this season; Washington, Arizona, Chicago, New Orleans, and Dallas. San Francisco played those foes to 5-1, both SU and ATS, Philadelphia to 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS.
- Get more details: San Francisco at Philadelphia 1/29/23 Betting Stats
NFL Playoffs Betting Trends
With last week’s win/cover over Dallas, the 49ers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS this season against teams that made the playoffs.
With last week’s win/cover over the Giants, Philadelphia is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS against playoff qualifiers.
Over the last five championship rounds of the playoffs, the home teams – the higher seeds – are 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS.
Totals Report
- The Overs played 9-8 in 49ers games this season, which averaged 43 points.
- The Overs played 10-7 in Eagles games this season, which averaged 48 points.
- The Overs played 4-2 over wild-card weekend, but the Unders played 4-0 during divisional-round weekend.
- Over the last five championship rounds, the Overs are 6-4.
