Saints vs Bears Advanced Analytics: Yards Per Point Edge
Advanced efficiency metrics highlight a clear edge for Chicago heading into this Week 7 matchup at Soldier Field. The Bears hold the advantage in yards per point — a key indicator of scoring efficiency — averaging 14.2 yards per point on offense compared to New Orleans’ 16.8. That 2.6-yard gap shows Chicago’s ability to turn yardage into points more effectively. Defensively, the Bears also hold the edge, allowing 15.1 yards per point while the Saints give up 18.4.
New Orleans has struggled to find offensive rhythm, ranking 28th in efficiency with 305.3 total yards per game translating into just 18.5 points. Chicago, on the other hand, averages 338.6 yards and 25.2 points per game — a much healthier ratio. The Bears also excel in key areas like red zone offense (68.2% touchdown rate) and third-down success (41.8%), both well ahead of the Saints’ 52.1% and 31.2%, respectively. Historically, teams with a yards-per-point edge of this size have covered the spread in more than 70% of similar home situations.
Power Rankings and Efficiency Comparison
The power rankings data reinforces Chicago’s edge. The Bears sit 14th in total offense while the Saints are down at 24th. Scoring efficiency tells the bigger story — Chicago ranks 10th at 25.2 points per game, while New Orleans comes in 28th at 18.5. That seven-point gap aligns closely with the projected margin.
On defense, Chicago allows slightly more yards (369.4 to 327.3), but the Bears are better at preventing points, ranking 12th in scoring defense versus the Saints’ 25th. Chicago’s +8 turnover margin — best in the league — shows how often they create extra possessions. Even on special teams, the Bears hold an edge in return yardage and field position efficiency. While the run defense remains a weak spot, New Orleans hasn’t shown the consistency to exploit it.
Supergrid Matchup Breakdown
Key situational data continues to lean toward Chicago. On third downs, the Bears convert 41.8% of their attempts while holding opponents to 38.7%. The Saints convert just 31.2% and allow opponents to move the chains 44.2% of the time — a major swing in sustained drives.
Red zone metrics tell a similar story. Chicago scores touchdowns on 68% of their red zone trips, while the Saints allow touchdowns on over 70% of theirs. Meanwhile, New Orleans converts only 52% of their own opportunities. That efficiency gap often makes the difference in close NFL games.
Pressure and explosive play rates also favor the Bears. Chicago pressures quarterbacks on 28% of dropbacks while allowing it just 26% of the time. They also create more big plays (16% of snaps result in 20+ yard gains) while limiting opponents to 14%. The Saints generate explosive plays on only 13% of snaps and give them up on 18%, widening the gap even further.
Historical Betting Trends
Teams with Chicago’s statistical profile cover more than 70% of home spreads in this range. The Bears are 6-3-1 ATS at Soldier Field since last season and 4-1 ATS in their last five overall. New Orleans, meanwhile, enters just 1-4 ATS this season and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Their seven-game winning streak over Chicago looks vulnerable based on current efficiency trends — historically, teams on streaks this long cover just 31% of the time when the underlying metrics tilt the other way.
Total trends point toward an early lean on the Under, but line movement from 45.5 to 47.5 suggests some sharp money backing the Over. Given both teams’ offensive volatility, tempo and game flow will be key in determining which side cashes.
