New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Week 13 Pick

The New Orleans Saints take on the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football on Thanksgiving Day. This NFC South battle has more heat than it would typically with a playoff-bound Saints taking on a nowhere-bound Falcons bunch. A few weeks ago, the Falcons stunned the Saints at the Superdome, and the Saints will be looking to make amends, with a lot of playoff ramifications abound. On Sunday, the Falcons saw their 2-game streak end in a 35-22 loss to the Bucs. The Saints. Meanwhile, moved to 9-2, when a FG in the game’s final seconds allowed them to beat the Panthers, 34-31. Let’s try to figure out who will deliver for bettors on TNF on Turkey Day.

Second Game of the Season

Obviously, when a two-touchdown underdog beats a team by 17, as Atlanta did to New Orleans at the Superdome on November 10, it demands attention. Up until then, a one-win Falcons team was sideways, struggling to find success overall, but also failing to deliver covers for bettors. In that game against the Saints, they did an about-face, with a stout run-defense and a robust pass-rush, along with an efficient-running offense getting the most of what it has. The Saints couldn’t get in the end zone, a rare sight during Drew Brees’ long tenure with the team. Does this first game show the Falcons match up well with New Orleans? Or does it give the Saints yet another reason to shine in a game they should win?

But Still…

Taking results like that too much to heart could lead us off the right path. First of all, the Falcons won’t catch the Saints sleeping this time around. Brees is a little more up-to-speed than he was in that game, a few more weeks back in action and getting acclimated. The Falcons were resolute in game one, and their “D” stood up seemingly every time it mattered. Atlanta won easily with just over 300 yards on offense, even with Brees completing 32 passes on the day. Granted, the Falcons have upped their game the last several weeks, but the result of the first game was a bit fluky. Still, there are some things we can’t ignore—how well they got after Brees with Grady Jarrett, Vic Beasley, and Adrian Clayborn, how they didn’t let the Saints run the ball, and how they controlled the tempo of the game. On Sunday, though, we saw a lot of what we saw before—a soft defense with a bad secondary and a one-dimensional passing offense that grinds to a halt when not in-rhythm, which is often.

Bad Timing to Go Against New Orleans?

Again, you’re not going to catch the Saints by surprise as you did the first time. Brees is more embedded in the offense, and his weapons are healthier. It’s hard to imagine this offense not finding a way to connect through the air against an Atlanta secondary that was chopped up last week by Jameis Winston. And sure, this defense can make plays, but with the Saints’ balance on offense, it figures to do damage. Why didn’t it the first time then?

Atlanta’ defense often underachieves on a massive scale. With some outstanding players on all levels of the defense, they sometimes manifest a stunning lack of success from this group. But the Saints ended their last game without both of their starting tackles, and it makes one wonder when all the injuries will start to manifest. They’ve soldiered on admirably through a disproportionate amount of personnel losses, but you wonder if it won’t give the Falcons the edge they need to hang in there.