New Orleans held on to defeat Seattle 25-20 last Sunday. San Francisco had a much-needed bye last weekend.
The Saints gained 123 yards on the ground last week with RB Tim Hightower accounting for 102 yards on his own. The 49ers rank 32nd in run defense in 2016 as they give up 185 ypg, a truly frightening number. With ILB Navorro Bowman out for the season, San Francisco lacks a reliable run stopper on the inside. RB Mark Ingram coughed up a fumble early in last week’s game but will get some carries this week. QB Drew Brees hasn’t been as prolific this season as he has in the past but still has a solid 18-5 TD/INT ratio. WRs Brandin Cooks and rookie Michael Thomas are both having good seasons as is WR Willie Snead. The 49ers are allowing 222.4 ypg through the air but part of that is because their run defense is so poor. I expect Brees to have success through the air, especially if the Niners have to drop a safety into the box to defend the run. Brees has been sacked 11 times this year while the 49ers have gotten to opposing QBs 13 times. No player has more than 2.5 sacks.
San Francisco’s offense is in tatters no more so than under center. QB Colin Kaepernick is the starter again but has produced 16 and 17 points in his 2 starts. Accuracy remains a problem as he is completing only 46% of his passes. The Saints have surrendered 9 passing TDs on the year, a far cry from their NFL-record 45 allowed in 2015. They should be able to contain a passing offense led by journeyman WR Jeremy Kerley and his 30 catches, 11 more than any other teammate. RB Carlos Hyde missed the loss to the Buccaneers but should be ready to go for this contest. He is the main threat on offense but is averaging a mere 3.9 ypc. The Saints did a good job of keeping the Seahawks offense in check and should have little problem in this matchup.
Public Money Consensus
In this matchup between the Saints and the 49ers the public is definitively on New Orleans to cover the point point spread with 89%. The over/under bettors believe this game will go over the total of 52 by 74%.
