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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Betting Odds – Free Pick

By David Schwab

The New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers will meet for the second time this season on Thursday night football with the Saints holding the early edge. Kickoff from Bank of America Stadium is set for 8:25 p.m. (ET) and this NFC South clash will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

New Orleans at Carolina Game Overview

A very fluky loss to Denver last week on a blocked extra point ended the Saints’ five-game winning streak against the spread in a 25-23 loss as three-point home favorites. It was just their second straight-up loss in the last six games and on the year they are 4-5 with a 6-3 record ATS. The total stayed UNDER 49.5 points in the loss to the Broncos and it has stayed UNDER in three of New Orleans’ last four games. It is still a perfect 4-0 ATS in four previous road games this year.

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New Orleans struck first blood in the season series with a tight three-point win against the Panthers as a 2.5-point home underdog and its record this season when getting points is a perfect 5-0 ATS. This team does much better when the expectation level is low and that has led to big wins against San Diego and Kansas City on the road as well as Seattle at home. Drew Brees continues to light things up through the air on an offense that is first in the league in passing yards per game (322.7). The Saints are second in the NFL in scoring with 29.4 points a game.

The Panthers seem to take one step forward only to take two steps back in a season that got off to a very slow start out of the gate at 1-5 both SU and ATS. A recent two-game winning streak came to an abrupt end this past Sunday with a 20-17 loss to Kansas City as three-point home favorites. The total stayed UNDER 44 points in that loss and it has stayed UNDER in three of the last five games. Carolina is 2-6-1 ATS overall and that includes a 2-3 record ATS at home.

While everything went right for this team last season on its way to Super Bowl 50, it has had its issues on both sides of the ball this year. Cam Newton has only thrown 10 touchdowns in nine games and he has been picked off seven times. He has already been sacked 23 times and his current completion rate is below 60 percent. The Panthers’ once vaunted defense is ranked 25th in the NFL against the pass and it is allowing an average of 25.1 points a game, which is ranked 23rd.

New Orleans at Carolina Game Betting Trends

  • The Saints are 4-2 SU in their last six road games and they have covered ATS in their last five games on the road. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven road games.
  • The Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played at home and their SU record in their last 18 home games stands at 15-3. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last 12 games at home.
  • Carolina has a 4-2 SU edge in its last six games against New Orleans, but the Saints hold a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings. The total went OVER 53 in the first meeting this season with New Orleans coming away with a 41-38 win at home as a 2.5-point underdog.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Prediction

The Saints have flourished ATS as underdogs this season and they appear to be playing their best ball on the road. Carolina’s inconsistencies from one week to the next have made this team a betting nightmare this season.

Conventional wisdom might dictate that the Panthers even the score this Sunday following the earlier loss in New Orleans, but I still like the Saints’ chances to keep this a three point game either way. I will take the four points on the road and bank on New Orleans staying perfect ATS this season as underdogs.

Free Pick: Take New Orleans +4
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