The Eagles pulled a big upset the last time they met the Patriots, two seasons ago in the Super Bowl, and shoot for a third straight victory over New England when the teams meet Sunday afternoon in Philly. Which way are we going here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 11’s NFL betting odds opened New England at -3.5 for this game, with an over/under of 46. Early betting action then dipped that total to 45.
Patriots vs. Eagles Set-Up
New England started 8-0 this season then lost at a hot Baltimore last time out 37-20. The Patriots then had last week off.
New England fell behind to the Ravens 17-0 in the second quarter, pulled to within 24-20 in the third but could get no closer, losing outright as a three-point favorite on the road.
On the night, the Patriots got out-gained 372-342, out-rushed 210-74, and lost time of possession by a 37:23 split.
At 8-1 overall, New England leads the AFC East by two games and a tie-breaker over second-place Buffalo. The Patriots also lead Baltimore by one game in the battle for the best record in the AFC, although the Ravens now own the head-to-head tie-breaker.
New England ranks No. 1 in the NFL in total defense this season, holding foes to just 249 yards per game, but only 15th in total offense at 367 YPG. According to Sagarin’s ratings at USAToday.com, the Patriots have played the second-easiest schedule in the league so far this year.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, is 2-0 both SU and ATS its last two games, after beating the Bears two weeks ago 22-14. The Eagles then also had last week off.
Philly eased out to a 12-0 halftime lead on Chicago, then drove opening possession of the second half 84 yards to a touchdown. The Eagles allowed the Bears to get within 19-14 but held on from there for the victory.
Also, much to the delight of its financial backers, Philadelphia kicked a field goal with 25 seconds left to cover the spread as a five-point favorite.
On the day the Eagles out-gained Chicago 373-164, out-rushed the Bears 146-62, made 26 first downs to 10 for Chicago and dominated time of possession by a 40:20 split.
Just prior to that, Philadelphia snapped a two-game losing skid with a 31-13 win at Buffalo.
The Eagles rank 20th in total offense at 347 YPG and eighth in total defense at 326 YPG. Philly is also out-rushing opponents by a per-game margin of 127-87, all while playing the seventh-easiest schedule in the League.
At 5-4 overall, Philadelphia is tied with Dallas for the lead in the NFC East, although the Cowboys own the head-to-head tie-breaker. The Eagles also trail Minnesota by a game and a tie-breaker in the battle for the second NFC wild-card spot.
These teams last met back in February of 2018, that stunning 41-33 Philadelphia victory in Super Bowl 52. The Eagles led almost that entire game and won outright as dogs of 4.5 points. Also, that game flew over a total of 49, as the teams combined for 1,151 yards of total offense.
Nick Foles quarterbacked Philly that day, but he’ll be 600 miles away Sunday, quarterbacking the Jaguars in Indianapolis.
Philadelphia also won the previous meeting between these teams 35-28 back in 2015. The Eagles got out-played that day on the stat sheet but scored three defensive/specials teams touchdowns to steal a victory up in Foxboro.
NFL Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS on the road this season.
- The Patriots are 11-4 ATS their last 15 times out favored by less than a touchdown.
- The Eagles are 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS at home this season.
- The Eagles are 4-2 ATS their last six games as home dogs.
- After struggling through the first eight weeks of this NFL betting season, home dogs are 9-3 SU, 10-2 ATS over the last two weeks.
Totals Report
- Unders are 6-3 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging just 41 total points.
- Overs are 5-4 in Eagles games this season, which are averaging 49 points.
- Overs are 17-10 in the NFL for the last two weeks.
- Get more details: Patriorts at Eagles NFL Match-up Stats
