Monday Night Football throws a stinker at us this week, as the 2-5 Patriots visit the 0-8 Jets. New England is really struggling without Tom Brady, while New York is just waiting for the ax to fall on its head coach. Somehow, we managed to find a betting lean on this AFC East bout. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 9 NFL betting odds opened the Patriots at around -7.5 over the Jets, with an over/under of 41. Early betting action then bumped that total a point and a half, to 42.5.
Patriots vs. Jets Betting Preview
New England, struggling mightily without Mr. Brady, is 2-5 on the season, after losing at Buffalo last week 24-21. The Patriots fell behind 7-0 early and never led. They forged ties in the second half at 14-14 and 21-21, then fell back down by a field goal with four minutes left. New England then drove inside the Bills red zone in the last minute, but Cam Newton lost a fumble at the 14-yard line, and that was it.
On the day, the Patriots out-gained Buffalo 349-339 and covered the spread as four-point dogs. They just lost the game.
New England has actually out-gained five of its seven opponents this season. Unfortunately, it’s also committed 15 turnovers, third-most in the league.
New England started this season 2-1, with wins over Miami and Las Vegas and a close loss at Seattle. But since then, the Patriots have lost four straight, including that dismal performance two weeks ago against San Francisco.
At 2-5 overall, New England is three games and six teams behind the Colts in the battle for the sixth and final AFC playoff spot.
The Jets, meanwhile, remain the only winless team in the league after losing at Kansas City last week 35-9. New York allowed the Chiefs to drive the opening possession of the game 90 yards to a touchdown, failing to even force a 3rd-down situation. The Jets kicked a field goal, then gave up a KC fake punt for a first down, leading to another Chiefs touchdown. New York pulled to within 14-9 late in the second quarter but came up totally empty from there and couldn’t even cover the spread as 20-point dogs.
For the day, New York got out-gained by KC 496-221. So the Jets have now been out-gained in every game this season, three times now by 200 yards or more.
Two weeks ago, New York led at Buffalo 10-0 late into the second quarter, then came up empty from there and lost 18-10. Three weeks ago, the Jets got shutout at Miami 24-0. So New York has been held to 13 points or less six times over its last seven games.
At 0-8, with a dead coach walking, a bungled quarterback situation, and a bunch of guys who probably don’t want to be there, we’re not sure what the hell the Jets might be playing for from here on out.
- Get more details: New England at NY Jets Week 9 Match-up Stats
Patriots-Jets Recent History
New England owns an eight-game winning streak in the “rivalry” with the Jets, going 5-3 ATS along the way. But of course, that was all done while Mr. Brady was still with the team. Last year the Patriots won 30-14 at home but pissed away the cover as 20-point favorites, then won 33-0 in East Rutherford, covering at -9.5.
New England hasn’t allowed an offensive touchdown in its last three meetings with New York.
NFL Betting Trends
- Patriots QB Cam Newton is 71-60-1 SU, 69-61-2 ATS as an NFL starter.
- Jets QB Sam Darnold is 11-21 SU, 11-20-1 ATS, as an NFL starter.
- Favorites are 75-42 SU but only 49-67 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 13-29 SU, 22-18 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
Unders are 4-3 in Patriots games this season, which average 43 total points against an average over/under of 44.
Unders are 5-3 in Jets games this season, which are averaging 42 points against an average O/U of 45.
Overs are 63-54 in the NFL this season.
