New England saw their 8-game winning streak snapped with a 27-20 loss to Miami on Monday night. Pittsburgh rallied late for a 39-38 win over Baltimore last Sunday. It was their 8th-straight victory.
The Patriots had produced 191 and 196 yards rushing in their last 2 games before being held to 25 on 10 carries against the Dolphins. The Steelers gave up 152 yards on the ground to the Ravens but had held opponents to less than 100 ypg before that. New England has won in the past by exclusively throwing the ball but they function best when the running game is clicking and QB Tom Brady doesn’t have to be the whole offense. RBs Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis are the top two backs (for now) and they should get most of the carries. Brady is coming off a poor game and has a 1-3 TD/INT ratio over the past 2 games (24-2 before). However, Brady’s history has been that he follows a poor outing with a great one but he has been mortal over the past 2 weeks. He has also been sacked 29 times in 2017 and been hit several more times. Pittsburgh has 41 sacks on the year but has had trouble getting to Brady in recent seasons. With new pass rushers at their disposal this year, I expect them to get more pressure on Brady this Sunday.
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Pittsburgh is averaging 33 ppg over the past month as the “Killer B’s” are getting it done. RB Le’Veon Bell scored 3 TDs last week and was again a threat on the ground and through the air. While the Steelers average only a little above 100 ypg on the ground, they do have the ability to run when they need to. The Patriots have had their problems defending the run in 2017 (120 yards last week and 120 ypg) so they’ll have to guard against Bell’s ability to gain chunk plays on the ground. QB Ben Roethlisberger set an NFL record with his 3rd-career 500-yard game against the Ravens. He had 66 pass attempts which is usually not a recipe for success. WR Antonio Brown is cementing his stature as the NFL’s best wideout (99-1,509-9) and he’ll be New England’s No.1 concern. HC Bill Belichick has done a great job over his career of taking away a team’s top option but Brown is a different animal. He can get open vs. man, double coverage and zone defenses. TE Jesse James had 10 catches for 97 yards last week and is 3rd on the team in receptions. Rookie WR Juju Smith-Schuster is back this week from a 1-game suspension and Bell has 75 receptions out of the backfield. That is a lot of targets for a defense that has given up several big plays this season to be worried about. Roethlisberger has been sacked 19 times this year while New England has 30 sacks. Roethlisberger is prone to taking sacks waiting for plays to develop downfield but that may hold him in good stead this week.
Public Money
In this Week 15 NFL matchup between New England and Pittsburgh have the public believe that the Pat’s will cover the 2 point spread on the road with 67% on board. The over/under bettors are thinking this game will go over the posted total of 53 with over 65%.
