The New England Patriots continue the defense of last season’s Super Bowl title with a trip to Sports Authority Stadium at Mile High to face the Denver Broncos in this season’s AFC Championship. Kickoff in Denver is set for 3:05 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
The Patriots ensured their return to the AFC title game with a 27-20 victory against Kansas City this past Saturday as six-point home favorites. The win snapped a two-game skid both straight-up and against the spread to close-out the regular season and the total went OVER the 44.5-point closing line. New England is just 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine games and the total has gone OVER in six of those contests.
This will be New England’s fifth-straight run to the AFC title game and it is 2-2 SU in the previous four games. One of those losses was two years ago in a 26-16 defeat at the hands of Denver as a five-point road underdog. The Patriots also lost to the Broncos 30-24 in this year’s regular season as 2.5-point road favorites on Nov. 29. The big plus this time around is the return of the bulk of their receiving corps after both Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman were plagued with injuries. Gronkowski caught seven passed for 83 yards and two scores against the Chiefs and Edelman was Tom Brady’s favorite target on Saturday with 10 catches for 100 yards.
Denver was able to get past Pittsburgh 23-16 this past Sunday to makes its way back to the conference championship. The game ended as a PUSH with the Broncos favored by seven points at home and the total stayed UNDER the 41-point closing line. They are now 0-3-2 ATS in their last five outings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of those games.
The return of Peyton Manning to the starting lineup against Pittsburgh appeared to provide the spark that Denver’s offense was looking for. He ended the day with 222 passing yards after completing 21-of-37 attempts and while he did not throw any touchdown passes he did not throw any interceptions either. In the regular season, Manning only had nine touchdown passes against 17 interceptions. The Broncos also got a strong effort from a defense that was ranked first in the NFL against the pass and first in total yards allowed (283.1). Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger did throw for 339 yards, but Pittsburg’s ground game was held to just 85 yards on 19 carries.
The Patriots are just 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The total has gone OVER in their last four postseason games.
The Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six playoff games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games played at home. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 home games.
Head-to-head in this AFC tilt, the home team has covered in the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in eight of the last 11 games played in Denver. New England is a costly 1-5 ATS in its last six road games against the Broncos.
