pittsburgh-steelers-mason-rudolph-600

MNF Pick: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

By Cliff Knox
Date: 30/09/2019 8:15 pm
Location: Heinz Field
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds



Point Spread: CIN +3.5 / PIT -3.5
Total: 44.5

Outlook for Monday Night Kickoff

On Monday night in Week 4 two winless teams from the AFC North face off with the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger for the season and not only that, but their defense has given up the fourth-most yards in the league and only rank 29th in rushing yards per game. Cincinnati has given up the sixth-most yards, and they rank dead last in the NFL averaging only 41.7 rushing yards per game.

The Steelers have won seven straight games facing the Bengals. Both teams have played tough schedules in the early part of the season with each facing three teams that currently only have one loss between them. Pittsburgh lost their last game on the road to the San Francisco 49ers 24-20 even though they forced five turnovers. However, they were outgained by nearly 200 yards with only 239 yards of total offense. The Bengals lost their last game on the road falling to the Buffalo Bills 21-17 where they only had 306 yards of total offense.

How the Public is Betting the Bengals/Steelers Game

There hasn’t been a lot of movement in either of the betting lines. The point spread line was holding at Pittsburgh -3.5 but now we’re seeing some -3 minus money at some of the sharper betting sites. The total is being offered up at 44.5 to 45 points depending on where you place your action.

Injury Concerns

Bengals:

DE Kerry Wynn, DT Ryan Glasgow, DE Sam Hubbard, CB B.W. Webb, T Cordy Glenn, G Mike Jordan, and T Andre Smith are all listed as questionable for this game and WR A.J. Green is out.

Steelers:

ILB Vince Williams, LB Anthony Chickillo, and TE Vance McDonald are listed as questionable for this game, and FB Roosevelt Nix-Jones is out.

When the Bengals Have the Ball

The Bengals have defensive issues and rank last in the league in rushing offense, but Andy Dalton leads a passing offense that ranks fourth in the league. In the loss to the Bills in Cincinnati’s last game he passed for 250 yards with a TD and two INT and after a two TD no pick performance in Week 1 he has three TD and three INT in the last two games. The Bengals only rushed for 66 yards in the loss to Buffalo, but Joe Mixon had his best game of the season rushing for 60 yards on a respectable four yards per carry, and in his first two games he only rushed for a total of 27 yards. Dalton will be facing a Pittsburgh pass defense that ranks second to last in the league.

When the Steelers Have the Ball

Mason Rudolph is the starter with Big Ben out for the season, and the second-year QB from Oklahoma State has passed for 286 yards with four TD and two INT on the season. In the loss to San Francisco, he had 174 passing yards with two TD and one INT. WR’s JuJu Smith-Schuster had 81 receiving yards, and Diontae Johnson had 52 receiving yards, and each had a TD. James Connor leads the Steelers with only 97 yards and is only averaging 2.9 yards per carry. He rushed for 43 yards in the loss to the 49ers only averaging 3.3 yards per carry. He will be facing a Cincinnati run defense that ranks second to last in the league and last week gave up 175 rushing yards in the loss to Buffalo. Last season in his two games facing the Bengals Connor combined to rush for 175 yards.

Betting Trends

The Bengals are 0-3, but they are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. On the other side of the coin, the Steelers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 home games, and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their previous four games facing a team that has a winning record. However, the Steelers have covered the spread in four of their last five Monday Night games, and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their previous 26 games against the Bengals. Not many high scoring games between these AFC North rivals in the last several seasons, as in the past seven games between them the Under record is 5-2 and in the previous ten games between them in Pittsburgh, the Under record is 8-2.

Weather Report

The forecast for Monday states that it will be on the warmer side with the evening kickoff 75 F and a light wind.

Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction 9/30/19

This is a must win for both teams who have begun the year 0-3. The Steelers have won eight consecutive games in this series dating back to the 2015 season and have the home field advantage for the first meeting of 2019. The Steelers won only by three, 16-13 in that game in a reverse situation from tonight’s game. Ben Roethlisberger was behind center for Pittsburgh while back up Jeff Driskel was the QB for Cincinnati. That said, the line is a bit of a sucker line with the odds maker adding in the hook to draw in action on the Bengals. Neither club has been lighting up the scoreboard, so I’m going to take a shot on the total. Cincinnati put up 20 against an undermanned Seahawks team and have followed that up with back to back 17 point outputs. Pittsburgh is just not moving the ball this season on the ground or through the air and are expected to be without their No. 2 option in the passing game TE Vance McDonald.

Free Pick: Take the UNDER 44.5
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